AI · resolved market
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf79fa1e99b1a05dbe15117bd5d9d3bee53f4a8cc7a0f4c6592f3fa6d27604b7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $242,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f53…9b9abacked Yes | 30c | 13,912$4,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,210.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad8…8635backed Yes | 4c | 10,979$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 69c | 10,125$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,124.95 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed Yes | 31c | 10,000$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,099.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 10c | 9,659$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.17 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,502$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110e…8b11backed No | 72c | 4,965$3,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…225fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,972$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 68c | 3,807$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…4d17backed Yes | 35c | 3,744$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…e33fbacked Yes | 29c | 3,553$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 18c | 3,497$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.31 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a9f5backed Yes | 5c | 3,493$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 6c | 3,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ad…5efebacked No | 72c | 3,366$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be8…b383backed Yes | 3c | 3,353$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe01d…6365backed Yes | 6c | 3,290$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…9b82backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…5decbacked Yes | 1c | 2,934$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…132ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,667$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 73c | 2,656$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.12 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7489…cb1ebacked Yes | 30c | 2,615$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 3c | 2,147$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…da31backed Yes | 35c | 2,145$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…03e6backed No | 79c | 2,043$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked No | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…75edbacked Yes | 24c | 1,906$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…64fabacked No | 76c | 1,897$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,843$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 66c | 1,741$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.65 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 1,700$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.41 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 3c | 1,697$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…4753backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…6126backed No | 67c | 1,643$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…d18fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,627$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…85e9backed Yes | 7c | 1,554$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,442$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,433$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06c3…ec62backed Yes | 1c | 1,370$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…6297backed Yes | 21c | 1,364$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed Yes | 4c | 1,341$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,278$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…e34bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,265$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…7f5fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,259$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 1,167$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 1,130$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.9 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,119$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,107$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…8584backed Yes | 5c | 1,075$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5301…e09dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,062$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…cf71backed Yes | 3c | 1,051$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed No | 67c | 1,037$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.51 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd4…a98cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…f3d2backed Yes | 24c | 977.87$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked No | 72c | 974.67$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…cbddbacked No | 65c | 849.88$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…3bd3backed Yes | 5c | 844.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 809.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 32c | 797.73$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.12 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 76c | 793.37$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.37 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…5523backed Yes | 2c | 700.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 73c | 674.18$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…9511backed Yes | 5c | 653.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…8909backed Yes | 23c | 618.62$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…27b6backed No | 66c | 609.7$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c2ebacked Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 24c | 599.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 18c | 584$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.19 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 25c | 578.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…ff3cbacked Yes | 4c | 562.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 2c | 549.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64df…fb6abacked Yes | 46c | 535.48$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc08…565fbacked Yes | 13c | 527.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 514.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…ca07backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 499.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 473.12$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…e0c8backed No | 62c | 470.4$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 467.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 80c | 454.99$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 453$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 35c | 432.55$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.29 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 70c | 400$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 73c | 385.04$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Yes | 27c | 375.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 373.9$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.89 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92a…a73fbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…81bcbacked No | 74c | 358.46$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 72c | 355.47$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.66 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 69c | 349.02$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 28c | 346.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…89d4backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.