TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9360…03e6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
85
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 56 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$7,380Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$2,619.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,817Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+98.6%+$1,791.47
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$670Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+198.5%+$1,330
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,637Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+53.5%+$875.69
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+400%+$600
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$257.77
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,660Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+80.7%+$1,340
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,260.95
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16,307Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16,306.64
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,064Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,063.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,930Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$1,070
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$787Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$213
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,234Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$876.1
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$497Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$496.99
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,678Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,678.03
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$112
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$791Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+55.7%+$440.96
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,561Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+40.1%+$1,026.57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,720Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,720.19
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$230
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.2
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.23
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,620Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$423.14
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$18.9
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+168.8%+$264.71
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+100%+$338.06
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$16
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.6
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$77.4
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$30.69
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$180.52
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$44
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40.79
Grokipedia released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.08
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$2,756Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,756.35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,490
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$210
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11,370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11,369.59
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,116Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$384
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,840Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,839.68
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$300
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$594.05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$541Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$541.2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,867Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$540.26
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$20.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+39.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.03
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$13.94
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+104.1%+$28.05
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$65.6
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$21
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.75
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.82
All 9 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-56.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$154
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$962Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$517.66
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+188.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+188.7%+$33.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$14.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.