TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$399,418
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$424,048

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,418 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 423 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes60c22,610$13,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,138.5416831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca9…4c9fbacked No61c21,344$12,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,980.715238.5%20 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes37c18,220$6,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,401.868247.6%39 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+67.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf32a…9bf2backed No68c16,288$11,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,04550%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes56c8,622$4,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,75835631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes41c8,567$3,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,035.9912341.5%51 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes53c8,250$4,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,896.8335355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes54c7,602$4,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,472.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed Yes62c7,164$4,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,693.675451.9%28 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+133.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes38c7,118$2,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,415.1520438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes50c6,999$3,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,466.537856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0238…eb0bbacked No46c6,927$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1933354.5%18 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd902…cdb9backed No66c6,066$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0004242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x279c…2b82backed Yes46c5,949$2,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,189.126755.2%37 W · 30 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b9d…8201backed No27c5,907$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.7911454.4%62 W · 52 L+15.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x79cd…079bbacked No58c5,700$3,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,305.08812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick44cpaid-43.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x334b…d971backed No45c5,360$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,415.2430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes55c4,971$2,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,228.4615541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x027e…c97fbacked No57c4,951$2,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,824.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes37c4,781$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,004.3617839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes69c4,339$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.767745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes79c4,188$3,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.7716553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes63c3,750$2,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.630635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No47c3,513$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.7216739.5%66 W · 101 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No50c3,376$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.286813.2%9 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d1…d312backed Yes62c3,237$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.231855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+34.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1437…acfebacked No29c3,167$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.332330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+164.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b3c…110bbacked No36c3,118$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.731936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a59…6c6fbacked No36c3,080$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.61546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa289…d95cbacked Yes66c3,080$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.122763%17 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked Yes47c3,001$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.5513650%68 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5979…7fbdbacked Yes45c2,987$1,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.831776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+49.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes42c2,803$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.416650%83 W · 83 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed No58c2,757$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.45749.1%28 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes34c2,730$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.3816638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9360…03e6backed Yes65c2,513$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.693351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes36c2,475$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.5822627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f8…dbbcbacked Yes58c2,446$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.07425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked No54c2,379$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.834143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7777…9f12backed No48c2,281$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.08520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No46c2,250$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.0658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8e3…6fb0backed No55c2,205$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.932045%9 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f7…87aebacked Yes57c2,193$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.052937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f6f…ce33backed No66c2,126$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-47%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacea…8b97backed No65c2,037$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.512846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…1ba4backed No50c2,016$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb1…b027backed No48c2,006$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed Yes72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5602755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes43c2,000$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.318834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes37c1,992$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.8524149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No29c1,982$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.9935921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No58c1,866$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.969637.5%36 W · 60 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes47c1,862$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.6512152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes59c1,800$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.9928750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8982…af89backed No66c1,795$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.062825%7 W · 21 L-7.4wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked No69c1,781$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.283831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes63c1,730$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.2519449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes74c1,715$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.196462.5%40 W · 24 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes48c1,700$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.999441.5%39 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No50c1,686$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83724759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes62c1,650$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.1948923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No2c1,640$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5620143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes38c1,600$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99029129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ce3…2317backed No40c1,510$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes69c1,500$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.3813544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes39c1,442$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.7215436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes31c1,440$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.6549023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa20a…d92dbacked Yes67c1,434$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.493548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb1…4547backed No75c1,424$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5167…cb83backed Yes34c1,410$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+45.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f07…8aefbacked Yes50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7004163.4%26 W · 15 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+33.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c06…b98abacked Yes72c1,386$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.084431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0894…d819backed Yes75c1,381$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.41442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed Yes57c1,340$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.22857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No61c1,271$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.139051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No5c1,199$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9942311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc079…dec4backed No55c1,198$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.933253.1%17 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes38c1,142$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.9219739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc902…cd14backed Yes50c1,100$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5504148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fec…135dbacked No69c1,100$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.382339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+123.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d7…4952backed Yes47c1,094$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.516956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x407d…1baebacked Yes78c1,078$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.294551.1%23 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked No47c1,068$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd286…2322backed Yes38c1,036$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.111533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cab…abe1backed No42c1,002$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4202524%6 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9876…1e66backed Yes75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Yes47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+61.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No42c999.98$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9920247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ebf…5bfabacked Yes52c999.84$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.955135.3%18 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1994…b4e5backed Yes34c949.97$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.981650%8 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes50c924.97$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.124839.5%98 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes38c919.64$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.386043.3%26 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+51.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes65c891.98$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.1920336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No13c873$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0521726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff6…7c7bbacked No59c841.34$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked Yes74c834.22$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.213855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes46c799.98$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.9919639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc957…243fbacked No62c775.1$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.421827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-42.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc32f…9627backed No65c768.08$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked Yes44c766.65$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.7612740.9%52 W · 75 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.