TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,207,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,252,036

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,207,283 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,614 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes40c54,854$21,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,949.241855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes35c54,823$19,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,524.97932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+10.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No52c53,690$28,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,132.081127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No64c40,348$25,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,976.6493840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes76c37,662$28,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,168.174025%10 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No41c27,803$11,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,288.932321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes45c25,734$11,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,136.872832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed No66c23,456$15,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,490.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-54.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes37c22,389$8,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,135.932227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bf…2a6ebacked Yes51c20,970$10,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,340.73988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No43c20,590$8,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,874.3411734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No42c16,186$6,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,776.4627322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f4e…2e3ebacked No2c15,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes30c12,345$3,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,693.942035%7 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes65c12,335$8,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,314.1862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes74c12,066$8,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,184.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf491…ee5ebacked No57c10,146$5,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,759.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No13c10,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3402147.6%10 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+67.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes76c9,933$7,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,402.384131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No26c9,723$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.25324.5%13 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34f9…0540backed Yes46c9,497$4,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,121.03933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…dea6backed Yes67c9,290$6,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,036.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No39c8,622$3,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,349.992030%6 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-49.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked No75c7,638$5,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,711.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b67…b814backed Yes78c7,619$5,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.662025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23ec…c434backed No8c7,520$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b62…5203backed Yes61c6,890$4,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,689.492552%13 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No27c6,792$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.529745.4%44 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd43d…8a2abacked No3c6,036$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.59812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed No44c5,737$2,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,547.811127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x388f…f828backed No63c5,711$3,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,609.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No50c5,576$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.023432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff2c…5f75backed No17c5,568$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b9e…ae15backed No13c5,396$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28aa…8f75backed No57c5,387$3,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,05520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a29…5f03backed Yes58c5,296$3,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,202.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes24c5,086$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,852.64327.9%12 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes60c5,022$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.813839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79a8…bb66backed No30c5,000$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.712437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No32c4,803$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.512222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes36c4,709$1,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.31330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes30c4,500$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,164.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+159.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed Yes72c4,340$3,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.783644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cd…701fbacked Yes80c4,300$3,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.693100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No62c4,145$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,571.784235.7%15 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+72.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No68c4,107$2,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,803.022626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes79c4,000$3,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.563432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x405d…025ebacked Yes47c4,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed No56c4,000$2,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-77.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe222…b4cbbacked No71c3,996$2,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,837.034332.6%14 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes56c3,940$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.092744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed No36c3,887$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes45c3,751$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,080.942352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No25c3,734$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.842259.1%13 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.25per pick34cpaid+90.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed No46c3,628$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.657930.4%24 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c3,523$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.631,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked No36c3,500$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2455115.7%8 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd4b7…65c0backed No71c3,500$2,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,482.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0099…386ebacked No35c3,500$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.9960%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c3,490$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.342221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No71c3,489$2,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4634440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes25c3,333$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,499.731764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.26per pick39cpaid+58.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3d14…ee01backed Yes72c3,263$2,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.381225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28a3…869ebacked Yes70c3,202$2,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.233100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked Yes75c3,163$2,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.731662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed No53c3,155$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.471241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No48c2,962$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.091952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes45c2,850$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.382339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes47c2,823$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.921258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes76c2,758$2,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.154546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No68c2,500$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7001533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5254…891bbacked No52c2,475$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes42c2,455$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.333315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes36c2,296$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.427860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No73c2,208$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.7640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes27c2,200$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6063655.6%20 W · 16 L+6.5wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+27%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No59c2,139$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.841546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2637…26e1backed Yes46c2,068$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.361020%2 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-64.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd20b…3a20backed No35c1,984$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.32944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda5…c82abacked Yes62c1,964$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb502…30b9backed No47c1,920$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No51c1,872$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.230839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked No72c1,807$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3004637%17 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4911…7f5dbacked No57c1,805$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes66c1,800$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.13540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked No5c1,800$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.09330%0 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes33c1,786$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.996937.7%26 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No39c1,737$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.7911628.4%33 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes59c1,684$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.768734.5%30 W · 57 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No50c1,677$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8364077.5%31 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0136…94cdbacked No72c1,669$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed No12c1,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes58c1,625$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.031127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes66c1,620$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.11926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-47.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No54c1,597$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.8424126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes79c1,590$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.043762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes63c1,569$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.6732023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb712…7069backed No68c1,554$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No39c1,526$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.2211032.7%36 W · 74 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes46c1,520$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.15933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.