TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$723,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$736,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $723,256 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 463 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c66…44f3backed No8c113,857$9,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,096.971838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes76c72,537$55,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,496.822227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No47c29,940$14,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,103.2194240.2%379 W · 563 L-69.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No33c25,814$8,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,600.072321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes63c19,475$12,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,288.651855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28aa…8f75backed No59c18,067$10,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,73120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74bf…2a6ebacked Yes60c15,955$9,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,419.97988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No14c15,183$2,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.1511734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes34c13,978$4,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,266.871127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No23c13,351$3,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,104.292744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c12,225$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.83911.1%1 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No15c12,000$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.165527.3%15 W · 40 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No15c10,660$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.585324.5%13 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed No5c10,057$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed No53c9,261$4,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,868.53616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed No0c9,225$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes55c8,070$4,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,626.7427322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No56c6,832$3,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,849.28637.2%32 W · 54 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4b7…65c0backed No71c6,675$4,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,720.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No69c6,357$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4004440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9175…6acfbacked Yes71c5,946$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,746.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed No1c5,555$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes33c5,500$1,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,664.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+159.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes48c5,446$2,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,855.862931%9 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-54.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes43c5,378$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,087.162352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No39c5,047$1,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,948.469745.4%44 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c64…ac0bbacked No7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c4,099$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.882221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes29c4,094$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,888.987932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+10.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x579e…fef5backed No6c4,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No6c3,666$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.05979.3%9 W · 88 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf491…ee5ebacked No63c3,403$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No52c2,872$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.4315020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c2,848$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.71,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No53c2,762$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.92560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed No5c2,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.583737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No11c2,664$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.394325.6%11 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked No30c2,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505115.7%8 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5395…26a2backed No57c2,411$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No10c2,380$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.974546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No11c2,286$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.67525.3%19 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-57.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed No36c2,265$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.497930.4%24 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a3…869ebacked Yes80c2,250$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4503100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes45c2,231$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.59742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27a…7b4dbacked No76c2,200$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,66210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No7c2,174$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.362744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked No65c2,159$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4004637%17 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa68…94a7backed No2c2,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked No7c2,000$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131330%0 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5882…55a2backed No65c1,995$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked No29c1,977$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.362227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes51c1,969$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes37c1,875$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.986937.7%26 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes59c1,800$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7424131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No23c1,721$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.1211032.7%36 W · 74 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed No67c1,644$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.09944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d16…7228backed Yes73c1,625$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.332864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fd…e897backed Yes25c1,600$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2002100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+174.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed No36c1,500$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9de2…2f54backed No66c1,500$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+77.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed No64c1,482$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9502010%2 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-86.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No40c1,424$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57510051%51 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48b7…f103backed Yes31c1,420$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+62.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b71…917cbacked No7c1,389$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No18c1,386$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.645916.9%10 W · 49 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No61c1,382$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8374077.5%31 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56ec…5f73backed No10c1,339$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.461330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…9402backed Yes42c1,275$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.26825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes40c1,210$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf57a…72a5backed No7c1,200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No6c1,199$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.971987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79a8…bb66backed No38c1,184$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.492437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No47c1,170$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.881952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73a9…789abacked No9c1,146$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed No12c1,102$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+199.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No6c1,100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc327…31f5backed No11c1,083$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.223748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+38.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No63c1,065$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.1224126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes43c1,061$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.4514031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes55c1,010$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.477661.8%47 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed No29c1,010$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.92147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34f9…0540backed Yes60c1,007$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.78933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes55c1,001$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.8921015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b67…b814backed Yes79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.012025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2637…26e1backed No75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501020%2 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-64.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d9e…5421backed No67c999.99$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes38c999.98$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.994723.4%11 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f64…32b3backed Yes34c999.96$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+109.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No51c998.02$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.0320624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cd5…f2cfbacked No51c986$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.56850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes53c977.03$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.45944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes29c968.01$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.573246.9%15 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+268.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No6c958.63$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.21812.5%2 W · 79 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes56c925.21$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.091258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19c1…a397backed Yes37c917.87$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.871747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed Yes58c904.88$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.993644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No34c892.04$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.214240.5%17 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x97a6…2190backed No34c865.15$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2923946.2%18 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed No10c859$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.881258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+49.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes70c850.58$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.891163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.