TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,302,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,723,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,302,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 545 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9453…1a48backed Yes4c150,697$6,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,718.755048%24 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes7c86,633$5,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,862.33540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes12c76,876$9,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,548.47714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-77%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes10c47,812$4,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,91640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes11c42,204$4,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,615.978637.2%32 W · 54 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes1c32,722$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.52474.3%2 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes6c31,882$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.1232023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes18c30,564$5,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,504.971855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes5c29,891$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes16c28,699$4,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,734.924131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes8c26,614$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063.7660%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb01…ead3backed Yes14c22,294$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes5c22,234$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.712536%9 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes10c21,168$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,034.939745.4%44 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes10c20,011$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.852934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b67…b814backed Yes23c20,000$4,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,516.932025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes4c19,095$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.08979.3%9 W · 88 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes7c17,018$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.957526.7%20 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes14c16,819$2,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,367.111032.7%36 W · 74 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes15c16,138$2,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,361.192227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x845e…d22bbacked Yes4c15,354$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.261442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes3c14,212$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.152810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes7c14,043$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.98214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-79%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes1c13,804$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.591833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes18c13,446$2,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.014325.6%11 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…9402backed Yes6c13,295$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.14825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes11c12,614$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.491822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes3c12,302$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes4c12,200$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.77711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes4c10,910$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02d8…0c91backed No73c9,870$7,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,664.9366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes18c9,758$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.5127322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes15c9,599$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.712339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes4c9,430$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.13932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c9,373$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.19812.5%2 W · 79 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e4f…4594backed Yes5c9,266$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.773026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x329e…68c0backed Yes12c9,205$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes18c8,893$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes3c8,757$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.67130%0 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes23c8,752$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.5990%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c8,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135738.2%6 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64a9…7311backed Yes2c8,384$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.07156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-81.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19c1…a397backed Yes9c8,231$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.161747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdec2…b015backed Yes8c8,218$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.47333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes9c8,198$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.18330%0 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0511…a1efbacked Yes1c7,982$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes1c7,981$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.41513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+43.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes19c7,902$1,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.397932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+10.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes25c7,593$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,916.934546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes11c7,078$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.937525.3%19 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-57.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x12df…6a3dbacked Yes28c7,063$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes13c7,000$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-78%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes19c6,987$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.822321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x87a8…445cbacked Yes4c6,966$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2611040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed Yes7c6,866$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.441811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes14c6,636$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.114025%10 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes18c6,235$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.1550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes7c6,202$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.129914.1%14 W · 85 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x831a…d532backed Yes12c6,148$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae97…3edcbacked Yes4c6,099$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes9c6,076$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.965916.9%10 W · 49 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes9c6,057$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.61118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-56.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa338…2acabacked Yes3c6,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes12c5,857$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.523315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes19c5,606$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.741428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+131.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes5c5,521$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes7c5,500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.72828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c66…44f3backed Yes26c5,454$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.421838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes5c5,337$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.431764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.6wins+0.27per pick38cpaid+93.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes5c5,281$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8e5…b808backed Yes5c5,113$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.02333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-57.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes6c5,087$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.762524%6 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick15cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes6c5,000$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.992123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-44.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf67f…31cfbacked Yes4c4,999$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d5…0a45backed Yes3c4,814$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes5c4,781$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.391936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes3c4,780$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2420624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes2c4,679$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.08911.1%1 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed Yes7c4,529$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.743644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes14c4,477$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.47540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x812b…14d0backed Yes13c4,466$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Yes7c4,444$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.86616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No78c4,443$3,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.223063.3%19 W · 11 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+41.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes13c4,424$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5673125.8%8 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes29c4,422$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.95540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed Yes6c4,409$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.452133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe4…3a16backed Yes24c4,386$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3fb…b340backed Yes24c4,369$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.64933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes1c4,348$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.41233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes6c4,309$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.711010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes16c4,252$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.3414031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes11c4,129$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.267334.2%25 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42c…3611backed Yes21c4,046$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+1,090.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes3c4,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.35per pick43cpaid+197.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes14c3,943$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.844235.7%15 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+72.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7447…4657backed Yes5c3,813$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes3c3,770$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.092737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c3,721$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1112011.7%14 W · 106 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+178.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes21c3,631$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.652222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6f…a3eabacked No73c3,592$2,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.