Commodities · resolved market
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41ba322441190c465ec75e5866c6a5a3d429cf4d1efe2682026e8dcd5dbc37db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,302,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,723,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,302,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 545 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 4c | 150,697$6,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,718.75 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 7c | 86,633$5,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,862.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 12c | 76,876$9,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,548.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 10c | 47,812$4,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,916 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 11c | 42,204$4,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,615.97 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 1c | 32,722$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.52 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 6c | 31,882$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.12 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 18c | 30,564$5,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,504.97 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 5c | 29,891$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 16c | 28,699$4,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,734.92 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 8c | 26,614$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 14c | 22,294$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 5c | 22,234$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.71 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 10c | 21,168$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,034.93 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 10c | 20,011$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.85 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 23c | 20,000$4,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,516.93 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 4c | 19,095$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.08 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 7c | 17,018$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.95 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 14c | 16,819$2,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.1 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 15c | 16,138$2,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,361.19 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked Yes | 4c | 15,354$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 3c | 14,212$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.15 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 7c | 14,043$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.98 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,804$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 18c | 13,446$2,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.01 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…9402backed Yes | 6c | 13,295$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 11c | 12,614$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.49 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes | 3c | 12,302$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 4c | 12,200$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.7 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 4c | 10,910$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…0c91backed No | 73c | 9,870$7,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,664.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 18c | 9,758$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.51 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 15c | 9,599$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.71 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 4c | 9,430$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.13 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 9,373$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.19 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 5c | 9,266$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.77 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…68c0backed Yes | 12c | 9,205$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 18c | 8,893$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 3c | 8,757$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.67 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 23c | 8,752$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.59 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…7311backed Yes | 2c | 8,384$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.07 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…a397backed Yes | 9c | 8,231$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b015backed Yes | 8c | 8,218$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 9c | 8,198$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.18 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0511…a1efbacked Yes | 1c | 7,982$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 7,981$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 19c | 7,902$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.39 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 25c | 7,593$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.93 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 11c | 7,078$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.93 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…6a3dbacked Yes | 28c | 7,063$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 13c | 7,000$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 19c | 6,987$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.82 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 4c | 6,966$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 7c | 6,866$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.44 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 14c | 6,636$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.11 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 18c | 6,235$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 7c | 6,202$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.12 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed Yes | 12c | 6,148$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae97…3edcbacked Yes | 4c | 6,099$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 9c | 6,076$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.96 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 9c | 6,057$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa338…2acabacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 12c | 5,857$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.52 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 19c | 5,606$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.74 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 5c | 5,521$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 7c | 5,500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.7 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 26c | 5,454$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 5c | 5,337$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.43 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 5c | 5,281$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e5…b808backed Yes | 5c | 5,113$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 6c | 5,087$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.76 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked Yes | 4c | 4,999$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d5…0a45backed Yes | 3c | 4,814$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 5c | 4,781$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 4,780$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.24 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,679$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 7c | 4,529$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.74 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 4,477$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812b…14d0backed Yes | 13c | 4,466$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 7c | 4,444$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 78c | 4,443$3,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.22 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 13c | 4,424$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 29c | 4,422$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed Yes | 6c | 4,409$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…3a16backed Yes | 24c | 4,386$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 24c | 4,369$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 1c | 4,348$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 6c | 4,309$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.71 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 4,252$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.34 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 4,129$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.26 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…3611backed Yes | 21c | 4,046$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +1,090.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 43cpaid | +197.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,943$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.84 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…4657backed Yes | 5c | 3,813$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 3c | 3,770$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,721$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 21c | 3,631$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.65 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6f…a3eabacked No | 73c | 3,592$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?this page
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No won
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.