Commodities · resolved market
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa08848205da5717b79e5bc21e7dbd31264fb01acc98bd1436b95870e8fec409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,557,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,624,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,557,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e1a…9723backed No | 0c | 461,000$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e0…3adbbacked No | 0c | 432,201$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…b64dbacked No | 0c | 332,710$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8d…8922backed No | 0c | 188,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 160,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef58…1976backed No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…b6b5backed No | 0c | 134,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…154cbacked No | 0c | 116,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…ac89backed No | 0c | 100,070$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…cf03backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…0541backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa788…f6e8backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…8abfbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…c97ebacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…5645backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4911…bbf7backed No | 0c | 94,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fc…b16bbacked No | 0c | 70,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…a2a7backed No | 0c | 70,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked No | 41c | 69,490$28,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,703.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…8644backed No | 0c | 67,700$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c26…a23cbacked No | 0c | 61,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…f120backed No | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 47c | 52,844$24,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,927.53 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 0c | 51,396$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…ae87backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…f96bbacked No | 0c | 47,790$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…606bbacked No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…3ec3backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f95…17fcbacked No | 0c | 39,190$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 61c | 38,091$23,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,257.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…3298backed No | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…3acfbacked No | 0c | 34,970$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 43c | 33,602$14,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,414.62 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed No | 0c | 30,002$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…6bc7backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…5dbfbacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed No | 0c | 28,064$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…43eebacked No | 0c | 28,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f7…5d81backed No | 0c | 27,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 34c | 27,054$9,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,063.77 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 52c | 26,803$13,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,953.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 24c | 26,541$6,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,404.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 62c | 25,000$15,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1e…07fabacked No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 40c | 24,174$9,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,468.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 0c | 23,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 50c | 21,374$10,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,591.88 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed No | 1c | 21,071$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf546…c5e7backed No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1d…ba7cbacked No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…a674backed No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1c…02bbbacked No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…543ebacked No | 0c | 20,080$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…7311backed No | 0c | 20,071$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…de5dbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0b…0ae7backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…8d76backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d89…ac9ebacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd4…91abbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes | 77c | 19,347$14,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,513.24 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x899b…7919backed No | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 66c | 18,581$12,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,361.21 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 32c | 17,750$5,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,644.98 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…6c79backed No | 0c | 17,740$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 28c | 17,575$4,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,589.99 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…ee55backed Yes | 61c | 17,531$10,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,879.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c53…6339backed No | 0c | 16,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…bbf0backed Yes | 61c | 16,478$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,478.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 37c | 16,323$5,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,976.3 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1637…69fcbacked No | 0c | 16,320$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 65c | 15,422$10,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,403.3 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…8b48backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a3…0c5dbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6339backed No | 0c | 14,700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 63c | 14,698$9,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,503.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 33c | 14,627$4,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,759.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…a2c9backed No | 0c | 14,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b2…c453backed No | 0c | 14,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f1…3ccdbacked Yes | 78c | 14,077$10,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,108.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c46…68c3backed No | 0c | 13,900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…9d3bbacked Yes | 79c | 13,705$10,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,866.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314e…86cabacked No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 11c | 12,950$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 20c | 12,566$2,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,521.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 68c | 12,485$8,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,054.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 55c | 12,046$6,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,386.58 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7717…fc34backed No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 76c | 11,570$8,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,828.94 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 53c | 11,498$6,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,399.35 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 28c | 11,348$3,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,122.2 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e13…a801backed No | 25c | 11,111$2,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,777.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…0929backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…c639backed No | 0c | 10,490$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 39c | 10,324$3,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,979.49 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 20c | 10,132$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.11 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 1c | 10,110$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82e…e9a0backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee34…67e8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x979f…f296backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…98abbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?this page
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?No won
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Yes won
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No won
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.