TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,557,781
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,624,157

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,557,781 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e1a…9723backed No0c461,000$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e0…3adbbacked No0c432,201$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa383…b64dbacked No0c332,710$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8d…8922backed No0c188,000$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked No0c160,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef58…1976backed No0c150,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9281…b6b5backed No0c134,000$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ece…154cbacked No0c116,000$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dca…ac89backed No0c100,070$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb7…cf03backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42d0…0541backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa788…f6e8backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6200…8abfbacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7b…c97ebacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ab…5645backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4911…bbf7backed No0c94,000$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16fc…b16bbacked No0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9db0…a2a7backed No0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9951…11bdbacked No41c69,490$28,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,703.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf5…8644backed No0c67,700$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c26…a23cbacked No0c61,000$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee2…f120backed No0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes47c52,844$24,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,927.532227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No0c51,396$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8724…ae87backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01cd…f96bbacked No0c47,790$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8012…606bbacked No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a56…3ec3backed No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f95…17fcbacked No0c39,190$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No61c38,091$23,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,257.411127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa218…3298backed No0c37,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb28…3acfbacked No0c34,970$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No43c33,602$14,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,414.622152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed No0c30,002$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30474.3%2 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6c…6bc7backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadf0…5dbfbacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa0…72d6backed No0c28,064$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.29862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2cb…43eebacked No0c28,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33f7…5d81backed No0c27,200$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No34c27,054$9,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,063.772321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes52c26,803$13,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,953.22862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No24c26,541$6,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,404.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes62c25,000$15,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,500714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-77%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c1e…07fabacked No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes40c24,174$9,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,468.381546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c23,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110911.1%1 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes50c21,374$10,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,591.886033.3%20 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4c…d6a2backed No1c21,071$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.641030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf546…c5e7backed No0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b1d…ba7cbacked No0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2255…a674backed No0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1c…02bbbacked No0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cf3…543ebacked No0c20,080$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a9…7311backed No0c20,071$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-81.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa70d…de5dbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0b…0ae7backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3599…8d76backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d89…ac9ebacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bd4…91abbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes77c19,347$14,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,513.241080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x899b…7919backed No0c19,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes66c18,581$12,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,361.216521.5%14 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No32c17,750$5,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,644.985560%33 W · 22 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+40.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf911…6c79backed No0c17,740$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes28c17,575$4,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,589.997932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+10.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86dd…ee55backed Yes61c17,531$10,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,879.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c53…6339backed No0c16,800$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1d…bbf0backed Yes61c16,478$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,478.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No37c16,323$5,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,976.32025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1637…69fcbacked No0c16,320$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes65c15,422$10,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,403.33839.5%15 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58af…8b48backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a3…0c5dbacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3e…6339backed No0c14,700$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes63c14,698$9,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,503.76540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No33c14,627$4,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,759.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2a9…a2c9backed No0c14,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b2…c453backed No0c14,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f1…3ccdbacked Yes78c14,077$10,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,108.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c46…68c3backed No0c13,900$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b8…9d3bbacked Yes79c13,705$10,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314e…86cabacked No0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No11c12,950$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.191936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No20c12,566$2,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.331118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d5…c665backed Yes68c12,485$8,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,054.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes55c12,046$6,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,386.584025%10 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7717…fc34backed No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes76c11,570$8,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,828.944546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes53c11,498$6,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.352832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No28c11,348$3,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,122.26434.4%22 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+526.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e13…a801backed No25c11,111$2,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,777.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ea…0929backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x275c…c639backed No0c10,490$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No39c10,324$3,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,979.492857.1%16 W · 12 L+4.5wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked No20c10,132$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.11175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-79.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No1c10,110$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.31650%8 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe82e…e9a0backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee34…67e8backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x979f…f296backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff99…98abbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.