TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf1ff…5b03

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
255
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 65 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT9335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 93 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+890.1%+$179.8
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$525.39
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+86.8%+$21.27
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$326.56
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$31.34
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$110.4
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$630
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$3,372Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,372.25
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$768Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$768.2
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,303Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+86.1%+$1,121.87
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.12
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$430.36
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.61
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$322
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.85
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,028Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,027.69
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$560.15
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,215.47
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,019.99
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+792.9%+$1,952.2
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$51.77
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,395Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,395.19
Showing 25 of 93 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT3360.6%20 W · 13 L+7.9wins+0.24per pick37cpaid+54.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,015Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+234.3%+$2,378.63
GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$11
GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.85
GRVT FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$373.71
Over $32.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+541.5%+$998.14
Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.84
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+56.4%+$125.35
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.78
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.05
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$602Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+135%+$812.48
Over $45M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+48.6%+$134.19
Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+108.4%+$21.47
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.3
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$4,592Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+65.4%+$3,003.28
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+50.5%+$43.41
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+417.7%+$253.33
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+489.3%+$190.85
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+121.3%+$148.57
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+164.7%+$184.15
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$495Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+57.4%+$284.25
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$586Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+91.5%+$536.2
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$349.75
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$312
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.78
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2313%3 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-77.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.2
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+111%+$16.1
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.61
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will the announcers say "VAR" during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.4
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$581.01
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.42
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the France vs Morocco FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.68
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.65
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$7,445Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,445.16
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.62
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+54.5%+$103.33
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.69
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.07
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.02
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.81
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.98
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.86
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.48
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,792Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,792.04
All 23 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-44.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$304.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+86.9%+$232.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.16
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.99
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+226.5%+$244.43
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.54
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.96
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+104.5%+$277.81
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+63.3%+$85.97
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.74
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+189.9%+$174.01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.61
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.42
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.03
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.74
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.59
Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 21 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick48cpaid+79.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+165.9%+$591.86
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$362Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+110.4%+$400.13
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+629.6%+$2,352.76
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$32
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+42.7%+$41.41
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+46.5%+$49.72
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+46.7%+$73.25
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+25%+$4.75
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+91.9%+$252.92
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$112.75
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.04
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.14
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-63.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.17
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.61
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.93
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$452.65
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$671Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$670.72
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.07
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.03
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+101.3%+$287.6
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.99
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$21.86
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+224.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$391Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+1,026.7%+$4,009.52
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+404.6%+$273.03
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$516
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.86
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.6
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$311.8
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+153%+$44.92
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.42
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.71
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$625Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$625.37
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.8
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.99
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.59
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.32
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+76.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chesslast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+287.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Chess — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2last resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabadbacked Chennai Super Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Karachi Kingsbacked Karachi Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+126.9%+$45.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ilinca Amariei vs. Elsa Jacquemot: Total Sets O/U 2.5backed Over 2.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Iasi Open: Ilinca Amariei vs Elsa Jacquemotbacked Ilinca Amariei · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$139.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$146.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$8,913Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+60.7%+$5,408.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)backed Paris Saint-Germain FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.49
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.