Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6a6dd7a8654925d425b1ea24904ed8d373f8c540b9348087de684a162719ddf

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,003,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,422,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,003,878 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 729 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8a37…c99cbacked Yes	0c	49,334$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.33	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	16c	44,390$6,955 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,955.23	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3592…c81abacked Yes	0c	40,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+11%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	17c	38,543$6,462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,461.7	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	8c	31,947$2,608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,608.29	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	5c	21,796$1,119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,119.04	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	16c	20,276$3,336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,335.74	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa133…1c7dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+124.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94de…74bcbacked Yes	0c	19,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	12c	18,980$2,253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,252.82	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	8c	18,096$1,415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,414.59	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	22c	17,915$4,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,006.85	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x165a…de1abacked Yes	34c	13,473$4,645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,644.77	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	23c	12,036$2,811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,810.82	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	22c	11,621$2,566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,565.59	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	18c	11,493$2,054 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,054.01	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	79c	10,778$8,513 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,264.71	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	10,569$1,335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,335.07	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes	1c	10,237$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.62	243	26.7%65 W · 178 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfad4…ac37backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e32…8496backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	28c	9,724$2,746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,745.93	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	27c	9,497$2,544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,544.36	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes	26c	9,133$2,414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,413.54	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed No	70c	8,808$6,181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,626.63	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	5c	8,535$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.06	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	15c	8,089$1,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,208.67	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	8,020$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.22	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	1c	8,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	1c	8,000$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	7c	7,885$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539.06	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes	34c	7,604$2,554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,553.72	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	22c	7,385$1,647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,647.21	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2fc…d11cbacked Yes	1c	7,020$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.96	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	16c	7,014$1,109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,109.26	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed Yes	31c	6,680$2,076 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,076.37	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	6,577$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9176…512cbacked Yes	28c	6,235$1,734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,733.68	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	27c	6,141$1,639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,639.25	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	19c	6,000$1,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,139.91	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	5,875$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.19	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	22c	5,860$1,307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,306.89	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	20c	5,646$1,138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,137.74	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	19c	5,525$1,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,039.37	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	76c	5,319$4,047 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,271.82	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	5,200$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.55	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	20c	5,169$1,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,044.42	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	22c	5,108$1,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,125.38	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	23c	5,097$1,192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,191.52	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	65c	5,090$3,293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,797.2	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1884…7a65backed Yes	1c	5,066$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.65	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	1c	5,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	67c	4,994$3,336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,657.46	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a99…df14backed Yes	22c	4,879$1,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,089.69	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	6c	4,727$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.38	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	4,639$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.03	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	11c	4,314$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.62	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	19c	4,087$764 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$763.76	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes	30c	4,029$1,213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,212.86	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65a0…ebecbacked Yes	27c	4,024$1,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,082.66	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	4,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	22c	4,000$880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$879.71	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	7c	3,951$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.47	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	3,949$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.82	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	20c	3,923$793 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$792.59	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1009…9062backed No	64c	3,900$2,488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,411.8	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1095…2650backed Yes	36c	3,900$1,412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,411.8	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70c3…9e36backed Yes	37c	3,900$1,443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,442.97	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dad…9f19backed No	63c	3,900$2,457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,443	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.19per pick	41cpaid	+43.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1005…a843backed No	68c	3,738$2,556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,181.82	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	13c	3,700$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.87	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49a…e985backed Yes	3c	3,657$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+367.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca88…efb2backed Yes	10c	3,570$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.14	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	27c	3,512$950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$949.93	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	27c	3,463$925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$925.45	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	23c	3,440$805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805.32	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	24c	3,330$787 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$787.49	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…3b2bbacked Yes	11c	3,174$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	11c	3,169$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.46	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes	32c	3,137$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d50…8eebbacked Yes	35c	3,129$1,099 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,099.14	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	8c	3,105$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.5	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	23c	3,053$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.69	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	13c	3,000$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.54	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	16c	3,000$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.56	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	25c	2,931$743 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$743.43	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd5e…271bbacked No	69c	2,890$1,988 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$902.27	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed No	62c	2,822$1,736 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,085.58	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	12c	2,811$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.96	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	18c	2,811$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.13	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,631$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.63	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Yes	28c	2,598$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.59	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3418…413bbacked Yes	2c	2,530$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes	8c	2,500$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	23c	2,474$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.7	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf77…1488backed Yes	10c	2,471$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.88	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x276c…05a9backed Yes	8c	2,441$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.91	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	23c	2,379$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.96	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event