Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea3ca9445b5d17bb4c155c87c31d04a1bbaa10e2832ed6de7115837e46a3f824

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,776,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $916,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,776,636 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	57,858$1,143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,143.42	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	0c	53,002$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.17	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	0c	48,594$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.25	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	40,447$1,378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,378.37	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	38,894$2,936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,936.25	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	32,190$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.79	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	6c	30,293$1,671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,670.59	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	3c	27,267$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	25,000$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.28	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	0c	24,999$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	21,513$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.51	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	7c	18,040$1,278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,278.48	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06c3…33c8backed Yes	0c	17,450$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	2c	16,383$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.41	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	16,355$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.86	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	7c	14,156$1,059 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,058.99	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	4c	14,155$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.32	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	3c	13,993$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.08	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	13,833$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	1c	13,450$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.6	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	4c	13,249$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.7	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	12,780$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.38	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes	2c	12,017$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	5c	11,808$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.9	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	9c	11,493$1,018 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,018.32	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	9,606$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.86	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	9,559$672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$671.84	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63e3…7d85backed Yes	1c	9,527$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.2	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	3cpaid	+889.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	9,464$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.95	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	9,428$1,119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,119.16	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	6c	9,328$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.68	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	0c	9,301$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2844…5aa1backed Yes	0c	9,039$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.09	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+234%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9d…efc0backed Yes	0c	8,632$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	8,628$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.16	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	1c	8,170$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.63	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes	3c	8,110$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.49	93	21.5%20 W · 73 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Yes	5c	7,820$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.56	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	4c	7,445$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.87	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	7,200$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	5c	7,083$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.04	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	7,022$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.13	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	6,709$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.22	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	2c	6,626$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.94	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	5c	6,234$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.22	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	6,206$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.48	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	2c	6,088$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.67	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	6,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	9c	5,783$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.98	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	3c	5,536$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	4c	5,376$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.5	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	4c	5,269$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.6	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	5c	5,233$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.28	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	4cpaid	+464.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	4c	4,952$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.15	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	8c	4,878$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.72	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa86d…b2dabacked Yes	2c	4,866$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.87	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	4cpaid	+425.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,836$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.67	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes	4c	4,765$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.49	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x881f…dfe9backed Yes	0c	4,623$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	5c	4,500$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.72	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	3c	4,420$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.43	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	4,338$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	17c	4,297$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.05	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	1c	4,295$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.74	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	3c	4,087$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.93	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	3,928$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.43	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	5c	3,551$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…54b3backed Yes	6c	3,320$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	2c	3,298$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.67	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f89…433ebacked Yes	2c	3,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	2,938$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.06	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d4…433cbacked Yes	6c	2,838$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.25	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.16per pick	8cpaid	+233.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	4c	2,805$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	1c	2,699$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.06	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	6c	2,608$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.19	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x774f…8779backed Yes	0c	2,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.36	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…747abacked Yes	1c	2,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3592…c81abacked Yes	1c	2,346$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+11%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	6c	2,330$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,291$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.23	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	0c	2,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	9c	2,173$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes	1c	2,150$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	5c	2,082$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.22	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72e5…4690backed Yes	3c	2,067$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	14c	2,009$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.8	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	2,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	18c	1,969$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.67	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	9c	1,945$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.84	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	8c	1,855$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.67	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	1,840$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.42	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	3c	1,827$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.7	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	6c	1,737$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event