Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6a69fe3d71cf548179aabdb4d8d1eb29241c48b1ca5cc1e023a181910bd217a

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,651,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,402,564

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,651,921 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 538 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0676…3b27backed No	0c	118,098$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.96	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	13c	87,465$11,073 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76,392.2	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	83,618$1,190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82,428.21	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	36,933$3,377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33,555.58	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	74c	34,725$25,787 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,938.16	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	15c	33,542$5,111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28,430.64	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	3c	32,074$885 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31,189.11	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	49c	31,536$15,446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,090.17	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	2c	26,651$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26,158.5	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	14c	25,422$3,609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21,813.34	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	73c	23,762$17,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,482.45	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	23,013$2,543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,469.85	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x744a…0ea8backed No	9c	20,236$1,806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,806.2	86	45.3%39 W · 47 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	1c	19,999$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,899.5	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	15c	18,007$2,775 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,231.23	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	14c	17,949$2,508 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,441.65	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	20c	15,903$3,182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,721.08	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	17c	15,841$2,754 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,086.85	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	1c	13,635$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,534.99	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	34c	13,355$4,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,755.2	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	3c	12,179$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,758.22	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	7c	12,071$866 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,204.47	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	25c	11,493$2,896 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,596.92	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	12c	11,197$1,318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,878.74	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	15c	11,150$1,645 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,504.9	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	10,419$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,105.83	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,990	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8134…305fbacked No	2c	10,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.9	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63e3…7d85backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,900	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	3cpaid	+889.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3753…8a21backed No	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f29…d13cbacked No	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3841…cd5cbacked Yes	5c	9,919$496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,422.96	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	6cpaid	+314.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	19c	9,852$1,891 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,960.68	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	46c	9,828$4,488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,488.39	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	27c	9,418$2,497 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,920.63	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	25c	7,776$1,969 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,806.77	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	31c	7,545$2,356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,188.28	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	7,432$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,284.99	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc47…be03backed Yes	6c	7,296$457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,838.31	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	25c	7,276$1,802 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,474.27	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	7,250$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,047.66	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	15c	7,177$1,092 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,085.12	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a37…c99cbacked Yes	58c	7,052$4,056 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,996.4	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	6,983$726 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,256.69	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	5c	6,977$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,616.4	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes	2c	6,666$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,519.32	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	4c	6,000$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,772.86	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x165a…de1abacked Yes	24c	6,000$1,432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,568.09	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed Yes	69c	5,822$3,990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,832.18	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	33c	5,710$1,906 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,803.89	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	78c	5,628$4,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,404.44	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	6c	5,538$358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,180.25	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f96…e6a2backed Yes	4c	5,487$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,286.63	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+125.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	10c	5,442$525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,916.94	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	2c	5,374$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,259.01	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	17c	5,354$892 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,462.04	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	15c	5,341$813 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,527.49	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,975	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad63…27babacked No	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	+142.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	10c	4,983$516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,467.36	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	8c	4,961$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,561.37	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7608…62e6backed Yes	6c	4,940$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,626.03	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+293.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	4,930$811 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,118.39	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ae9…7cc7backed Yes	65c	4,915$3,188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,727.18	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa86d…b2dabacked Yes	1c	4,651$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,596.04	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	4cpaid	+425.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes	77c	4,640$3,594 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,046.59	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.26per pick	54cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	6c	4,629$261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,367.87	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed Yes	4c	4,511$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,320.65	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+114.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,450$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,432.23	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	40c	4,407$1,765 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,642.05	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa55e…c136backed No	70c	4,400$3,076 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,075.72	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	47cpaid	-26%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	6c	4,216$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,947.79	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	21c	4,139$877 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,262.04	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	12c	4,090$503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,586.93	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	18c	4,087$728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,359.38	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b5…22f0backed No	0c	4,077$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	16c	3,796$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,199.1	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,750$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,702.86	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	34c	3,732$1,278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,453.22	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	78c	3,658$2,861 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,860.59	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	16c	3,527$548 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,978.79	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	6c	3,500$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,278.99	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	3,474$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,386.64	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a99…df14backed Yes	18c	3,388$623 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,764.27	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No	7c	3,380$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.98	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+4.1wins	+0.20per pick	9cpaid	+299.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes	16c	3,359$526 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,832.95	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	15c	3,268$486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,781.81	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes	4c	3,252$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,124.92	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	4cpaid	+464.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes	5c	3,211$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,036.04	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	29c	3,077$886 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,190.65	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	9c	3,011$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,734.92	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	15c	3,003$442 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,561.21	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	16c	2,950$466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,484	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	53c	2,930$1,540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,390.18	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f39…4c71backed No	78c	2,859$2,236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,235.63	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Yes	27c	2,850$777 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,072.7	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,803$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,724.81	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	15c	2,794$412 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,381.24	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab18…467dbacked Yes	1c	2,683$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,659.96	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+2.7wins	+0.25per pick	21cpaid	+1,073.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	51c	2,652$1,344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,308.59	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event