Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bf94c893747f1822edb6b06e670071017042c833dee92b6a8a35af468a50fc0

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,232,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $670,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,232,780 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	91,884$1,926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,926.06	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	91,413$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.83	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	1c	31,918$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.67	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	28,146$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.96	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	27,882$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.88	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	26,809$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.15	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	26,028$1,245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,244.66	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…b52dbacked Yes	3c	21,714$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.14	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca8…18c7backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+180.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	1c	19,999$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	3c	19,787$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.17	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	3c	18,005$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.93	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	16,134$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	3c	15,166$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.65	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes	0c	15,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	51	2%1 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+107.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	13,049$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.8	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	0c	12,835$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	3c	12,602$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.1	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	12,328$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.73	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x774f…8779backed Yes	0c	12,000$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	11,493$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.42	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	10,999$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes	0c	10,012$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.29	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	9,308$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.54	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06e1…fbf4backed Yes	0c	8,433$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.15	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	7,392$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.62	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	0c	7,038$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	7,000$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.19	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	1c	6,888$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.06	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	1c	6,862$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.62	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	0c	6,842$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	1c	6,728$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	3c	6,462$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cbe…70fdbacked Yes	1c	6,338$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	2c	6,308$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.46	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	6,128$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.02	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	5,015$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.96	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	4,986$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.17	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf17c…f7fbbacked Yes	0c	4,673$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	0c	4,506$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	2c	4,500$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	6c	4,416$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.72	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb14b…87efbacked Yes	5c	4,301$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa7d4…433cbacked Yes	1c	4,283$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.16per pick	8cpaid	+233.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	4,075$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a55…0fe6backed Yes	5c	4,049$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.86	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes	0c	3,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+219.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	3,344$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.84	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	3,130$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.48	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	2,770$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.69	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	2c	2,690$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.35	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,631$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.58	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	1c	2,534$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	1c	2,323$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	2c	2,237$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.32	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc736…1fc2backed Yes	0c	2,229$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	47	31.9%15 W · 32 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+75.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	1c	2,225$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	2,140$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.58	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	2,126$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.51	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	2,076$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.79	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	1c	1,862$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.17	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	1,852$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.56	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	1c	1,805$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07c1…e23cbacked Yes	1c	1,668$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd760…83c8backed Yes	1c	1,600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa110…78fabacked Yes	2c	1,541$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.15	106	31.1%33 W · 73 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	2c	1,500$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc6…314abacked Yes	4c	1,497$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	4cpaid	+230.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	3c	1,389$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	3c	1,366$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa131…7e5ebacked Yes	1c	1,311$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.16per pick	9cpaid	+116.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf069…e660backed Yes	4c	1,247$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.1	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c03…d9bcbacked Yes	1c	1,175$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x209b…ffd2backed Yes	1c	1,053$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	2c	984.88$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	2c	973.36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.14	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa86d…b2dabacked Yes	2c	951.52$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.08	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	4cpaid	+425.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbe8…f30bbacked Yes	5c	839.09$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	5c	800$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.6	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes	2c	795.53$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2939…90c9backed Yes	5c	764.59$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes	8c	700.25$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1606…0ba6backed Yes	5c	700$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.2	100	21%21 W · 79 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4e5…25c1backed Yes	3c	674.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	33cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	650$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27e4…ff39backed Yes	3c	623.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	616.67$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.39	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	3c	606.05$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Yes	3c	577.12$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	4c	559.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	3c	518.29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes	3c	490.43$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	280	34.3%96 W · 184 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	8c	434.03$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.16	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	8c	410.95$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.43	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes	6c	357.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes	6c	316.12$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event