Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a834895c54bef19e6ac0a7ad2a4befc2e9af747d6dd1d52eb219782a98b2120

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,380,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $805,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,380,415 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	0c	242,324$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.32	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	52,403$4,256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,255.76	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	0c	34,155$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.33	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	30,679$3,086 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,086.21	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	27,776$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.78	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	13c	17,966$2,249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,248.93	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	15,991$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.71	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	14c	14,527$2,089 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,088.8	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	13,113$1,266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,266.06	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	12c	11,230$1,323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,322.91	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes	8c	11,018$894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.57	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	10,620$1,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,260.5	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	8c	10,552$851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850.87	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	8,554$779 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$778.98	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	7,431$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.49	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	13c	7,300$914 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$914.05	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	6c	7,135$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.18	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	5c	7,000$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	17c	6,739$1,128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,127.84	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	7c	6,677$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.54	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	8c	6,590$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.25	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	6,408$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.89	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	9c	6,367$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.98	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	5c	6,159$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.8	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	18c	6,115$1,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,095.68	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x165a…de1abacked Yes	3c	6,000$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.09	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	7c	5,933$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.04	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	3c	5,678$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.65	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	3c	5,288$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.3	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	9c	5,012$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	2c	5,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	5,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	2c	5,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	4,934$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.3	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	14c	4,920$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$710	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa22…5e49backed Yes	5c	4,914$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes	2c	4,534$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	2c	4,250$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.55	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	8c	4,214$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.44	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	11c	4,109$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.69	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	8c	4,047$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.07	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	4,000$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.49	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,797$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.13	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	5c	3,715$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.92	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	14c	3,645$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.5	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	3,623$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	9c	3,620$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.27	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	3c	3,500$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.5	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	10c	3,453$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.3	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	4c	3,421$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.57	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	11c	3,060$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.9	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	12c	3,000$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.44	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	4c	2,638$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.2	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	7c	2,573$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.48	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	21c	2,557$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.12	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	16c	2,536$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	13c	2,501$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.58	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	8c	2,380$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	6c	2,347$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.91	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	12c	2,295$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.43	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f4c…602ebacked Yes	1c	2,229$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-77.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	4c	2,210$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.85	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	11c	2,198$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.97	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	11c	2,120$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.22	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	13c	2,112$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.72	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a8f…8b2dbacked Yes	18c	2,062$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.06	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+3.5wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,037$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.36	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	15c	2,000$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	15c	1,977$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	2c	1,955$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.55	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,860$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.21	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	15c	1,831$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.99	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2152…717cbacked Yes	7c	1,818$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.41	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	3c	1,782$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	13c	1,757$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.45	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	6c	1,750$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.87	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	6c	1,741$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.75	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	13c	1,728$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.09	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c90…47e5backed Yes	9c	1,727$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafcf…d662backed Yes	8c	1,718$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.86	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+46%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc394…0082backed Yes	9c	1,700$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.3	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	14c	1,600$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.7	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	11c	1,582$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.93	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	1c	1,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	23c	1,492$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.42	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	16c	1,476$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.69	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	9c	1,469$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.13	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9cbe…70fdbacked Yes	2c	1,423$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	15c	1,415$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.74	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	8c	1,400$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.2	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a68…22dfbacked Yes	6c	1,382$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.67	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	7c	1,375$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fe…eff9backed Yes	6c	1,319$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.21	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	4c	1,284$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.54	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5652…c7b4backed Yes	9c	1,270$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.05	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	13c	1,180$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.54	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe372…e651backed Yes	7c	1,174$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.15	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	15c	1,160$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.4	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event