Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab90fa9ab957bf8457c6dc61a05366aa29125d504ee4edc27abc3841cd99118c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 2, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,865,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,586,063

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,865,488 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 766 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	1c	50,622$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.62	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	4c	36,265$1,630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,630.35	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	12c	31,963$3,734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,734.28	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	62c	30,642$19,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,125.09	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	0c	26,844$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.69	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed No	60c	26,000$15,548 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,451.97	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	16c	21,169$3,488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,488.26	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd979…d8a0backed Yes	1c	20,526$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.61	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	1c	20,007$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.35	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	22c	17,906$4,004 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,003.95	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	16,052$983 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$983.5	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dad…0830backed Yes	40c	15,768$6,337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,336.51	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	14,999$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	71c	14,877$10,544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,544.23	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	19c	13,625$2,597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,596.77	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	1c	11,992$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.8	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	19c	11,927$2,313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,312.97	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	32c	11,493$3,642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,642.22	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9193…b1f1backed Yes	60c	11,104$6,613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,612.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	48c	10,835$5,170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,664.86	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e32…8496backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	1c	10,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	16c	9,415$1,466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,466.41	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	79c	9,297$7,355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,941.5	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	54c	9,091$4,921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,921.23	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	69c	8,122$5,604 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,517.69	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	74c	8,110$5,962 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,147.61	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No	4c	8,000$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,677.73	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	1c	8,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	61c	7,816$4,740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,076.28	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x165a…de1abacked Yes	44c	7,570$3,301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,301.35	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	7,500$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.5	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No	14c	7,447$1,065 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,382.23	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	7,222$923 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$923.49	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	24c	7,197$1,756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,755.8	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	7,067$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	53c	7,025$3,749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,748.98	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	28c	6,485$1,840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,839.7	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	19c	6,179$1,157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,156.52	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	7c	6,000$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	0c	6,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes	46c	5,751$2,666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,665.95	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	4c	5,541$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.25	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	57c	5,520$3,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,173.65	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	35c	5,249$1,819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,819.43	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a99…df14backed Yes	51c	5,225$2,652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,651.86	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	22c	5,197$1,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,165.51	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes	2c	5,164$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	243	26.7%65 W · 178 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21a3…e375backed Yes	48c	5,114$2,458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,458.32	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	80c	4,954$3,961 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$992.59	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9604…fc1dbacked Yes	39c	4,727$1,847 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,846.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba2e…f687backed Yes	1c	4,553$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	4,548$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.24	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	2c	4,312$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.64	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	18c	4,215$749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$749.09	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	1c	4,192$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.5	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	56c	4,087$2,273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,272.77	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4083…308fbacked Yes	56c	4,015$2,238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,238.05	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes	50c	4,010$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	29c	4,000$1,152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,151.6	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27c8…2257backed Yes	14c	3,921$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.55	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	39c	3,515$1,378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,377.97	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	1c	3,470$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.65	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked Yes	38c	3,444$1,325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,324.55	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	7c	3,400$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.69	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	30c	3,330$994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$993.57	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes	61c	3,294$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,999.95	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49a…e985backed Yes	2c	3,272$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+367.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ab…53eebacked No	64c	3,200$2,048 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,152.27	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x716f…f38bbacked Yes	36c	3,200$1,152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,152	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	47c	3,045$1,416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,628.96	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	4c	3,000$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.16	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,896$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.74	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes	33c	2,888$954 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.78	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes	54c	2,750$1,485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,485.5	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	68c	2,749$1,866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,866.05	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	38c	2,687$1,017 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,016.79	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	19c	2,633$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.78	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	30c	2,620$774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$773.96	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	40c	2,477$988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$988.49	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	1c	2,475$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,446$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.51	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	74c	2,400$1,771 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$628.58	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	4c	2,364$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,276.65	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	28c	2,325$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.29	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	47c	2,236$1,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,057.91	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9906…c0aebacked Yes	16c	2,212$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.65	75	25.3%19 W · 56 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca88…efb2backed Yes	77c	2,174$1,674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,674.41	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	2,033$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.86	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bfc…55bbbacked Yes	15c	2,000$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.33	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	30c	1,949$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.96	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d26…3286backed Yes	67c	1,939$1,292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,292.22	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	49c	1,927$953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953.27	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb98…0f80backed No	14c	1,869$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,598.49	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	44c	1,867$820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.79	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18ac…5687backed Yes	46c	1,751$799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$798.89	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,704$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa133…1c7dbacked No	4c	1,703$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,630.5	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+124.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event