Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x990413625274d1224e9f92293e33bda0dbd93434ed037368ffd039a736456e9b

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $575,062
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $300,287

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $575,062 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe688…2d8dbacked Yes	4c	25,000$897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$896.74	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	22,616$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.18	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	19,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	14,404$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9876…fbeebacked Yes	18c	13,738$2,490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,489.81	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	11,821$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.34	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,552$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	11,466$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.71	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3901…41b5backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	10c	9,235$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	8,900$1,275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,274.69	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	8,798$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.38	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	13c	8,598$1,161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,160.59	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	7,300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	0c	5,025$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	12c	4,856$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.5	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	4,011$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.92	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	3,636$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.77	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	3,044$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.67	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	3,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	2,943$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.46	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	2,837$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.69	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	2,553$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.52	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	14c	2,540$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.82	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	6c	2,402$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.25	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	2,187$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.01	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	14c	2,127$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.36	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	2,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	5c	2,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x340f…7a99backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	12c	1,953$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.84	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	10c	1,931$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,803$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.19	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	6c	1,761$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	1,714$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.91	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	1,690$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.06	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	9c	1,599$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.91	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	15c	1,544$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.12	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	5c	1,541$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.15	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	15c	1,500$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.66	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	6c	1,500$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	3c	1,500$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.5	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	13c	1,500$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.79	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	15c	1,500$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.68	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	12c	1,457$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.26	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	18c	1,431$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	378	30.7%116 W · 262 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f4f…b421backed Yes	2c	1,411$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.57	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	3c	1,380$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	12c	1,363$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.41	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdae4…5a8dbacked Yes	15c	1,363$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	6c	1,350$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.9	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,254$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.15	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3974…e5cebacked Yes	7c	1,212$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	8c	1,184$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	18c	1,180$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.85	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes	13c	1,156$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.54	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	1c	1,149$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	12c	1,145$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08e0…592fbacked Yes	2c	1,125$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	10c	1,100$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.5	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	11c	1,083$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.18	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	10c	1,042$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30bd…97c7backed Yes	5c	1,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	13c	1,000$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	9c	1,000$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…2082backed Yes	11c	999.99$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes	3c	948.65$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed Yes	7c	946.32$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.47	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+2.2wins	+0.20per pick	34cpaid	+109.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5e3…b2dfbacked Yes	15c	861.41$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.99	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	27cpaid	-83.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	10c	843.49$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.99	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1302…b51bbacked Yes	2c	840.82$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.74	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	4c	810.15$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…7c00backed Yes	12c	809.91$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec34…d61ebacked Yes	21c	809.79$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0686…b980backed Yes	15c	805.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	10c	781.61$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.33	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e0…fb00backed Yes	13c	770.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	10c	754.86$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.22	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	9c	748.05$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.32	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	7c	744.03$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.28	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	14c	739.98$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.92	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe258…be54backed Yes	3c	707.66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	702.97$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.29	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes	10c	699.99$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.61	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	75c	697.11$526 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.89	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ee…d4e3backed Yes	5c	694.56$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	11c	680$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.7	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	24c	612.41$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73be…3113backed Yes	16c	591.78$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.12	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	10c	557.62$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.05	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	9c	557.03$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.66	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2af…c94bbacked Yes	3c	540.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	3c	523.21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ce2…00a1backed Yes	3c	515.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d09…eabcbacked Yes	12c	514.48$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.15per pick	29cpaid	+93.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event