TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb5c2…1750

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
255
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT2097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 209 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.09
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.77
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.53
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.09
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.13
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.99
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.78
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.63
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.13
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.22
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.83
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.98
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$464.06
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.82
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.68
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+646%+$1,291.91
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.66
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.84
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.25
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.42
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.53
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$632Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$631.8
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Showing 25 of 209 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestoneslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT205%1 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,236Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+294.7%+$6,589.03
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$459Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$459.14
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.76
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 27-August 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.41
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.41
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$483.48
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$518.06
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 20-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 29-July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$414.05
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$295.43
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.57
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$874Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$874.13
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.35
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.88
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.33
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.43
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 18-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.1
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$29.18
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20.32
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.8
All 20 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST80%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$42.41
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.2
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $72-76m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.88
Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.27
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross less than $370m by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.57
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 90m and 100m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.52
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 64-70m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.05
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+333.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Marlins vs. Diamondbacksbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Doug Polk win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jiankui He launch a memecoin before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.24
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.