Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2364083b6a17e325233bc463e226ee6abf9dce96250a74735bcced52fc1e035

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $692,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $382,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $692,167 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	2c	36,352$644 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$643.68	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	1c	31,351$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.02	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	26,547$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.57	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	0c	24,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	21,237$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	16,872$890 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$890.46	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	13,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	12,523$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	12,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	0c	8,645$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.52	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	2c	6,618$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.98	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	8c	6,500$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	5,453$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.57	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	5,295$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.97	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	19c	5,175$993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$992.77	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	7c	4,538$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.48	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	24c	4,380$1,072 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,072.06	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	6c	4,353$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.44	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	3c	4,205$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.95	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,145$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.65	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	4,130$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.57	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	12c	4,031$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.8	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	18c	4,000$701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.85	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	1c	3,965$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.58	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	26c	3,916$1,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,034.88	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7557…7579backed Yes	1c	3,750$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	3,321$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.48	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	6c	3,015$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.18	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	4c	3,010$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.32	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	10c	3,000$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,800$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No	77c	2,794$2,152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$641.77	74	39.2%29 W · 45 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	5c	2,636$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.19	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes	24c	2,615$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee7…fb27backed Yes	26c	2,569$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.94	63	23.8%15 W · 48 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	3c	2,297$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.67	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	1c	2,152$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.51	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	24c	2,130$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.78	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	2,117$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	2,082$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	9c	2,065$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.2	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	2,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	7c	2,000$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b3c…1a17backed Yes	5c	2,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-90.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	24c	2,000$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	20c	1,983$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.98	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	28c	1,808$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,798$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.2	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	9c	1,756$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.92	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	5c	1,600$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	1c	1,590$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.39	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	6c	1,500$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	16c	1,453$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.75	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	10c	1,443$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.67	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	14c	1,442$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.89	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99a5…71a5backed Yes	18c	1,401$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	11c	1,365$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.68	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa99…fd3fbacked No	76c	1,350$1,026 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$323.99	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	77cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	1,334$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	8c	1,315$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.24	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c06…a2b8backed Yes	19c	1,312$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.2	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	16c	1,283$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.4	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	10c	1,274$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.16	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	16c	1,228$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	2c	1,226$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.28	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	79c	1,202$950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.63	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	22c	1,200$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.95	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	12c	1,191$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.64	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	17c	1,169$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	7c	1,153$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.36	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	14c	1,126$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.3	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3de…c4f9backed Yes	3c	1,120$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	1,100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…d9e5backed Yes	13c	1,067$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.65	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	2c	1,052$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.39	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	14c	1,048$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.67	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	14c	1,043$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.26	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5359…6b35backed Yes	4c	1,042$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.46	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	7c	1,022$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.48	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdba1…0232backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-61%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	13c	983.35$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.49	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	5c	969$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.45	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f13…1631backed Yes	21c	956.34$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.79	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	14c	953.56$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.03	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5c…70e8backed Yes	22c	931.91$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.02	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-64%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47d7…df89backed Yes	19c	912.07$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.37	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	14c	899.97$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	13c	893.53$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.84	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b7f…d79bbacked Yes	15c	872.42$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.86	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299b…8994backed Yes	29c	862.07$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	3c	839.26$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.11	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	24c	831.18$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	19c	802.7$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.98	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes	22c	799.75$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.44	123	32.5%40 W · 83 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event