Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce44f6a482f5e2f8d9b865bfaa55131c4329561fd0a89767fc51a65e324412c

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $269,731
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $192,506

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,731 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x17f1…af18backed Yes	0c	22,222$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.44	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	+1,823.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	10,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.02	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	0c	6,632$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.27	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	6,334$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.98	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	5,517$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.14	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	2c	3,690$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.96	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	4c	3,036$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.8	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	2c	3,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	2,525$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.55	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	2,493$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.32	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	3c	2,433$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.35	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes	0c	2,184$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	54	22.2%12 W · 42 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	2,100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.9	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	7c	2,000$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes	5c	2,000$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.04	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	4c	2,000$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7dc…b33dbacked Yes	9c	1,800$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	21c	1,647$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,394$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.19	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	5c	1,245$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.92	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	6c	1,161$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.66	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes	1c	1,112$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec9…5f0dbacked Yes	1c	1,095$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-91%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,082$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.64	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes	7c	1,029$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	957.58$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.57	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…964bbacked Yes	6c	849.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.9	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	842.23$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.08	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	3c	743.04$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	742.5$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	719.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fca…f1f0backed Yes	2c	645.74$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	2c	558.39$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes	10c	505.69$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	111	18.9%21 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa757…2438backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	20	10%2 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	9c	499.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd83c…34f6backed Yes	8c	498.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	76c	478.91$365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.68	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	10c	412$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.96	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8a…006ebacked Yes	12c	399.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac3e…e416backed Yes	3c	365.46$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes	10c	299.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	4c	267.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	6c	214.44$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45fb…f9c0backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b33…b345backed Yes	8c	133.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7740…3429backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c9…de7cbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event