Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf97fd840effb1d8a465c9571232c68404ad0927e2b83f9996248e1c7c65e4e4

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $406,026
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $165,774

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $406,026 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	55,554$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	52,124$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.25	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	10,433$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.87	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	10,321$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.17	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	6,417$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.04	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	6,101$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	5,720$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.51	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	3c	5,686$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.92	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	5,214$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	2c	5,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	3c	4,800$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.83	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,639$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	6c	4,400$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.4	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	13c	4,000$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531.08	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	3,787$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.58	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	4c	3,758$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.71	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	3c	3,373$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	3,201$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.62	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes	9c	3,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299b…8994backed Yes	10c	2,592$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	2,198$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.11	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,147$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	9c	2,000$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.7	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	5c	1,958$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.07	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	1,909$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.79	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	10c	1,876$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.61	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	5c	1,838$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.41	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	1,763$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.84	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	3c	1,761$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.22	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	8c	1,749$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.42	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	2c	1,661$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.89	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes	15c	1,630$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	1c	1,565$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	1,460$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.11	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes	1c	1,457$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	8c	1,378$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.22	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	14c	1,333$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.75	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fca…f1f0backed Yes	9c	1,311$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.93	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,279$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b19…ca35backed Yes	16c	1,233$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	15c	1,200$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	5c	1,104$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.35	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	10c	1,006$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.93	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	1c	1,005$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.37	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	3c	852.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.49	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2cc…b624backed Yes	10c	795.21$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.55	111	21.6%24 W · 87 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	8c	750$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	6c	694.71$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.65	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	6c	671.93$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.05	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	9c	659.99$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.07	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	624.56$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.03	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec9…5f0dbacked Yes	4c	606.21$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-91%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	6c	578.57$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.14	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	14c	573.89$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.85	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5d…3e6fbacked Yes	14c	571.43$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	7c	549.97$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	2c	535$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8268…6146backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+318.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes	15c	493.58$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.04	86	9.3%8 W · 78 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked Yes	9c	480.3$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa661…4c55backed Yes	7c	464.3$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…d9e5backed Yes	14c	440$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.8	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	399.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	15c	399.98$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	13c	396.77$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1350…4c07backed Yes	12c	388.07$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.57	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-20%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec07…ca80backed Yes	13c	379.25$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	11c	376.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.09	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes	3c	365.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	114	18.4%21 W · 93 L	+10.0wins	+0.09per pick	10cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes	9c	333.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	184	19%35 W · 149 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	331.81$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.77	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	8c	321.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	8c	312.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes	7c	285$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	112	24.1%27 W · 85 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	8c	265.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.28	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes	7c	265.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.86	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6173…d511backed Yes	13c	250.38$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.55	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes	14c	247.7$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	111	18.9%21 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc7…e49abacked Yes	13c	237.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	10c	199.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	14c	199.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bf…66c7backed Yes	12c	185$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	96	28.1%27 W · 69 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	13c	182$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.66	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes	15c	180$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	71	26.8%19 W · 52 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72d5…f7c3backed Yes	16c	167.94$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.87	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3c…1f3ebacked Yes	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes	15c	150$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…9529backed Yes	13c	140$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0aa…13b3backed Yes	15c	133.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	12c	108.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf837…4311backed Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b33…6abcbacked Yes	15c	106.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c45…398bbacked Yes	28c	106.61$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.85	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event