Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb982d6715f5d6c7497a88ddf4ed99f0ab37fd60a0cc40fde0db649f07f86ea51

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $909,540
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $545,208

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $909,540 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 483 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	2c	75,681$1,253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,253	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	1c	63,332$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.33	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	20,340$1,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,116.42	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8783…8584backed Yes	0c	16,160$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	15,200$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.93	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	3c	14,025$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.59	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	13,569$2,109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,109.23	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	3c	12,850$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.83	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	11,409$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.08	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	6c	10,564$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$605.57	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	9,574$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.51	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	2c	8,680$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.79	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	9c	8,547$736 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.41	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	33c	8,238$2,698 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,698.17	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	8,002$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.53	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcb…a7b4backed Yes	41c	7,589$3,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,136	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	7,505$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.02	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	3c	6,463$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.46	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	0c	6,200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	6,150$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.05	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	22c	5,346$1,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,192.7	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	10c	5,158$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.11	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	15c	5,135$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$783.07	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	30c	5,093$1,522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,521.77	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	38c	4,332$1,639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,638.84	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	6c	4,219$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.29	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	70c	4,093$2,878 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,215.67	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	12c	4,000$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.6	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	4,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	3c	3,891$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.26	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	3,876$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.92	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	18c	3,875$690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690.21	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	32c	3,779$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	27c	3,606$968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$967.97	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes	21c	3,558$731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$730.86	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	4c	3,315$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	28c	3,274$918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$917.93	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	28c	3,263$917 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$916.77	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	14c	3,241$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.83	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	15c	3,029$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.22	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	13c	3,000$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.08	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	5c	3,000$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes	1c	3,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	12.7%8 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	20c	2,940$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.03	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85eb…d068backed Yes	17c	2,939$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.75	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.8wins	+0.30per pick	53cpaid	+66%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f61…2680backed Yes	29c	2,840$813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$812.85	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-3.2wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	17c	2,803$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.3	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f2c…2657backed Yes	0c	2,685$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	21c	2,632$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.94	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	2,579$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a5…71a5backed Yes	19c	2,562$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	12c	2,364$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.43	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0aea…8951backed Yes	18c	2,349$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.66	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	13c	2,315$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.05	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	6c	2,309$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.48	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	16c	2,292$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.15	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes	2c	2,240$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	2,237$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.76	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476d…ceecbacked Yes	0c	2,037$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	35c	2,000$696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	1c	1,992$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	130	8.5%11 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	19c	1,987$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.98	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	67c	1,870$1,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$621.04	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	6c	1,830$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.49	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,822$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.55	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No	80c	1,782$1,420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$362.37	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	13c	1,764$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.3	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa845…563ebacked Yes	15c	1,696$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.75	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	8c	1,670$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.39	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	2c	1,579$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.29	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes	1c	1,573$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	76	34.2%26 W · 50 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	7c	1,566$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.09	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	32c	1,500$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	9c	1,500$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No	71c	1,500$1,071 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$428.99	108	66.7%72 W · 36 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	6c	1,499$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.04	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	67c	1,499$1,004 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$494.64	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5965…33b5backed Yes	23c	1,473$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.01	95	32.6%31 W · 64 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	1,460$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	6c	1,424$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.17	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f4f…5394backed Yes	15c	1,318$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.34	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	27c	1,313$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.71	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No	71c	1,311$930 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380.06	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked No	71c	1,300$925 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.28	50	68%34 W · 16 L	+6.0wins	+0.12per pick	56cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c46…ae13backed Yes	39c	1,300$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.98	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked No	74c	1,295$963 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$332.02	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	7c	1,261$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.27	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e0…44e0backed Yes	21c	1,225$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.9	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b1…10f8backed Yes	37c	1,200$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	71c	1,200$851 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$348.99	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	9c	1,194$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41d0…e9f5backed Yes	7c	1,193$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.83	33	3%1 W · 32 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-87.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	15c	1,183$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.51	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba1a…d25abacked Yes	34c	1,173$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.92	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	3c	1,170$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.01	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	22c	1,133$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.08	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes	13c	1,123$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.11	132	24.2%32 W · 100 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes	29c	1,107$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.41	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event