Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15d198fa56b033763c3eab9fb9fa1fedf7ff00c15a9976d8926e8f2e224fec37

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $216,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $98,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,916 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x17f1…af18backed Yes	0c	22,222$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.44	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	+1,823.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc12c…9b58backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	6,895$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.09	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa23e…1faebacked Yes	1c	3,409$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	3,171$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.86	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	0c	2,682$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.01	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	4c	2,582$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.89	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	2,318$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.01	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.13	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.08	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	1,900$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	6c	1,792$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.5	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	1c	1,746$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.21	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	18c	1,710$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	1,630$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.46	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	7c	1,600$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.2	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	1,461$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,380$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.01	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	5c	1,112$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.75	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,037$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.34	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,034$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	2c	1,018$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.19	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	6c	826.73$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.58	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes	5c	804.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	771.05$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes	5c	625.68$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.27	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-91.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	2c	621.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8a…006ebacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…964bbacked Yes	5c	500$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.7	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	111	18.9%21 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a1…0ac8backed Yes	7c	499.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	4c	488.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	479.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	430$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd83c…34f6backed Yes	7c	410$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.7	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	366.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	6c	334$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.04	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	79c	319.81$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.94	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	8c	299.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	288.71$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	5c	262.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.01	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes	10c	199.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	7c	182.85$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf472…8a86backed Yes	9c	120$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7740…3429backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd969…b9b9backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	127	20.5%26 W · 101 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c9…de7cbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event