TailMyPicks
Market

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,838,370
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,291,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,838,370 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes0c288,944$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.9413815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-60.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes0c84,227$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2362713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes0c55,157$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes0c50,000$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.043134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c48,353$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.651,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes1c38,078$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.141,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes0c31,823$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6463414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes0c30,017$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.543650%18 W · 18 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes2c30,000$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.4745715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes0c26,428$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5932615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b0…c376backed Yes0c24,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes0c20,664$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.16818.6%7 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+122.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes0c20,439$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.195535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c18,099$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.061,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5084…fb85backed Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes0c15,526$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.536097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef5b…8873backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+291.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ede…47fabacked Yes0c14,272$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.441330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-49.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes1c13,895$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9413817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec23…ac24backed Yes0c13,071$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes3c10,690$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.1117631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x624c…593cbacked Yes0c10,635$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c10,285$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.411,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf107…9f3abacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+181.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…f76abacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303912.8%5 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick6cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb349…f38bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102512%3 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0114…fbfabacked Yes1c9,514$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c9,385$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.393281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cbb…41aebacked Yes0c8,722$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+110.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes0c8,702$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.891,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes1c8,685$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1838.4%7 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-69.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes0c7,614$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6515221.1%32 W · 120 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes1c7,523$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4033422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85ec…77cebacked Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f28…7d8ebacked Yes2c7,196$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.346421.9%14 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes0c7,001$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.142785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes0c7,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2124815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes0c6,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.182714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes1c5,685$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb66b…1438backed Yes0c5,043$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2317…abafbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f13…1631backed Yes1c4,661$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.43122.6%7 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes0c4,590$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6924114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes0c4,539$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023217.7%41 W · 191 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes0c4,293$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6821222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes1c4,120$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1228912.8%37 W · 252 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c4,098$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.712,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes1c3,972$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.549315.1%14 W · 79 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes1c3,769$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3878111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes0c3,728$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.746915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes1c3,551$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes1c3,335$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes1c3,245$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7826113.8%36 W · 225 L-0.5wins0.00per pick14cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c3,124$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.474916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes1c3,103$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3132716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f93…b91fbacked Yes1c2,899$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick9cpaid+414.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes0c2,847$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.336113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes2c2,535$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.085812.1%7 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c2,252$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.21824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes1c2,248$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204216.7%7 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+149.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…48c4backed Yes1c2,224$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.57450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes1c2,157$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9423212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes2c2,016$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3225944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c1,974$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.391185.9%7 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d51…7317backed Yes1c1,860$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,728$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.482,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes1c1,425$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.45249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes1c1,270$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.637010%7 W · 63 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes1c1,250$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.665930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes1c1,141$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230110.3%31 W · 270 L+0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9290…1257backed Yes3c1,069$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305644.6%25 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2da…fadabacked Yes3c823.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86f8…25d3backed Yes1c816.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes2c615.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7912614.3%18 W · 108 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd87f…d3e4backed Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.813917.3%24 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.