TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x879d…b501

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
735
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst World Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT60519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 605 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on August 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.45
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.7
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.84
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.02
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.34
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.77
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.79
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.55
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.74
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$119.6
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.65
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.93
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.67
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.45
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.89
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.16
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.31
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$84.96
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.29
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.16
Showing 25 of 605 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT9315.1%14 W · 79 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 93 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.69
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.49
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+540.4%+$359.05
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.36
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.6
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.61
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.84
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+77.5%+$82.36
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.94
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.1
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.01
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+178.4%+$196.32
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.03
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.62
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+240.1%+$65.02
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+864%+$479.36
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.69
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.85
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.14
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$221.58
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+655.3%+$520.57
Showing 25 of 93 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.88
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.2
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.6
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.16
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$508.15
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$201
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.28
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.18
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+203%+$46.9
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.05
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.75
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$30.1
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+70.8%+$21.25
All 18 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.25
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.95
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.81
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.43
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.21
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+275.5%+$74.9
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.39
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.38
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.95
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.57
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.88
All 13 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.64
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+93.1%+$96.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$9.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.