World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f74275ffdaefb60076e2031751b2068b9dd8e3dca220c1dca0d725059867384
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 1,011$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.08 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 50c | 726.32$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.43 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 637.53$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.22 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 424.78$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.86 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 385.75$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 34c | 383.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 20c | 376.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad2…3887backed No | 67c | 371.27$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 47c | 316.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 305.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 294.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 278.05$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 269.75$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 250$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 236.87$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 43c | 221.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 64c | 191.29$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 51c | 184.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 179.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.49 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 30c | 168.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 62c | 161.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…fd39backed No | 63c | 157.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 42c | 149.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 148.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 144.18$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 136.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 61c | 136.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 74c | 134.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 51c | 128.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 124.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 119.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 115.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.36 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 113.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed No | 68c | 101.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fe00backed Yes | 36c | 97.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 71c | 89.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 89.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 87.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…5d76backed Yes | 79c | 86.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 51c | 81.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 61c | 80.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 29c | 80.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…589cbacked No | 52c | 77.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 76.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 74.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 24c | 74.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 30c | 71.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 32c | 70.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 70.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 65.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes | 21c | 64.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 34c | 64.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 24c | 63.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 52c | 63.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 41c | 62.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 31c | 62.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 60.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 48c | 59.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 59.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 60c | 57.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 72c | 56.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 60c | 55.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 53.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 21c | 52.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 46c | 51.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 46c | 48.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 46.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 48c | 44.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 42.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 37.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 61c | 37.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 37.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…2c2abacked No | 69c | 36.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 69c | 33.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 66c | 33.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96b1…8136backed Yes | 32c | 33.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 50c | 32.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 54c | 31.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 31.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 48c | 30.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 29.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1e…b5f4backed No | 78c | 27.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca4c…3d58backed Yes | 70c | 27.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.