TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,435 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd36…a832backed Yes50c1,011$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.083243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes50c726.32$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.4311636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No53c637.53$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.2232748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No53c424.78$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.8621844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c385.75$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.3623044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes34c383.38$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1305827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes20c376.59$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.385149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfad2…3887backed No67c371.27$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.27366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes47c316.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes12c305.66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.143735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes23c294.03$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8832639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No73c278.05$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5316051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c269.75$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9934354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No77c250$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.835258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c236.87$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.636055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes43c221.57$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.341353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+107.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No64c191.29$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.612142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes51c184.56$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.258636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No34c179.5$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4939952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes30c168.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.446533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c3d…d3e9backed No62c161.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.69683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1103…fd39backed No63c157.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes42c149.5$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7514842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No54c148.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7131152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No75c144.18$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8415036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes33c136.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5939414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes61c136.28$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.614954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed No74c134.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No51c128.3$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.73757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes18c124.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0722111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No45c119.73$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.862166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+42.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No19c115.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.3626632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No67c113.56$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2812055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ab…3c91backed No68c101.6$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+121.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…fe00backed Yes36c97.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes20c95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.792623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No71c89.98$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.798100%8 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes43c89.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3344428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No52c87.28$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0444138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34f6…5d76backed Yes79c86.69$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3120%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No51c81.13$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.055121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No61c80.57$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.654266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes29c80.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.363339.4%13 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb545…589cbacked No52c77.21$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.71366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No53c76.49$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6423459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes40c74.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes24c74.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.871741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes30c71.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.25335.8%19 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes32c70.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4714553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No61c70.45$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5916850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No68c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.47582.7%62 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick76cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes35c69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3610320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes30c65.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.412640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes21c64.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No34c64.18$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.084551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes24c63.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2316934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes52c63.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4727521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes41c62.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.653666.7%24 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes31c62.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4816450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c60.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.111,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.22161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.543063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes48c59.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6815954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes38c59.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6239231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No60c57.91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.31966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes72c56.94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes60c55.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No77c53.48$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4513748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes21c52.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.996437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes46c51.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.975170.6%36 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Yes46c48.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.481442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-43.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No60c47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.688672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes38c46.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9418035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes35c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96d5…7227backed Yes48c44.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes32c42.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5112238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145881%47 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes37c37.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.012832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No61c37.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.565141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c37.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6440648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f6…2c2abacked No69c36.18$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes30c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.555131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No69c33.46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.214763.8%30 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No66c33.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.296346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96b1…8136backed Yes32c33.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes35c33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.572147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes50c32.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.431127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+40.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6469…a047backed Yes54c31.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No69c31.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5715558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes48c30.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7716254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.510864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125066%33 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No54c29.27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.448937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef1e…b5f4backed No78c27.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca4c…3d58backed Yes70c27.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.