World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a6e29a6c8f18b3e150fc85d19a824b4aab839796b75455237225a97c7007c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,217$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.22 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,189$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.12 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 60c | 902.6$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.39 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked No | 56c | 854.78$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 675.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.94 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 11c | 549.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 480.81$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.67 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 43c | 472.33$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.05 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 72c | 464.48$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 5c | 399.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.76 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 393.09$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.2 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 392.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.98 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 387.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.91 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 44c | 379.71$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.15 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…cd1dbacked No | 77c | 293.13$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.29 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 47c | 278.05$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.33 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 17c | 269.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.97 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 23c | 255.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 250$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 227.64$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 226.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 223.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…0f72backed No | 77c | 214.88$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 213.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 197.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 196.88$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.07 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 8c | 162.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 25c | 157.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 79c | 156.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 147.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 70c | 141.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 12c | 140.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 137.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 136.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.71 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 46c | 130.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 37c | 123.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 72c | 123$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 71c | 119.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…cc97backed Yes | 44c | 112.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 110$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 25c | 104.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 35c | 99.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 40c | 95.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 94.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 66c | 77.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 59c | 76.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…589cbacked Yes | 72c | 75.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 64c | 75.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 63c | 70.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 34c | 70.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 68.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 68.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa138…7a9bbacked Yes | 24c | 67.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +237.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca4c…3d58backed Yes | 34c | 64.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 22c | 59.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 45cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 62c | 59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 51c | 58.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 34c | 58.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 57.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 54c | 55.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6293…675fbacked Yes | 70c | 51.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 78c | 51.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 79c | 49.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed Yes | 24c | 47.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 29c | 45.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 42.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 46c | 42.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 32.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 31.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 67c | 31.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 40c | 31.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 69c | 29.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 59c | 29.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed Yes | 63c | 29.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 28.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 46c | 26.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 76c | 26.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 76c | 26.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 77cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 67c | 20.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9a…9456backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.