TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,118 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes19c961.19$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1711636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes7c635.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8822111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes18c626.23$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.833828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes8c383$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7623044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No52c336.14$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.62757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes48c327.34$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1565827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes6c315.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.45922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes9c302.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.276533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes8c249.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4410414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes14c247.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7221844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes6c235.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.543548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes40c225.6$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6139231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes5c214.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7216254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes34c205.66$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.335121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes30c205.41$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4232639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No67c200.39$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1444138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes40c189.24$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.618636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No72c171.79$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6534354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No59c169.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.852544%11 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No54c167.89$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.078856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No57c158.98$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.364240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes34c157.49$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6814842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No52c148.83$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0616834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes14c139.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.296330.2%19 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes16c138.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7716934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes43c136.54$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7939414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No60c129.36$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3623723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes9c128.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1452850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No42c128.66$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.215149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes35c126.93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4418638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c124$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1439952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes15c121.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2432748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes48c115.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.736330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No53c114.8$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.812055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No45c112.34$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2613155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes15c105.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4444428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes37c104.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.557020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No49c104.96$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.533735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c103.98$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No45c88.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.654551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No58c88.12$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.851266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes51c82.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb278…0f72backed Yes49c80$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34f6…5d76backed Yes65c77.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No52c76.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.34266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes29c75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No48c71.45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.172152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No46c68.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.42166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+42.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No55c67.63$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5113357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes33c65.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.173666.7%24 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No62c65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.785066%33 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No64c62.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5136055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe445…8750backed No39c60.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.817345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.46437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked No69c57.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.96757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick71cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No69c53.47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3613748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x353f…1623backed Yes39c51.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Yes39c51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.891442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-43.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.238235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb6b…96c9backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf3…ca4abacked No55c49.91$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No44c49.76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.853743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No54c49.19$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.88038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes49c48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No69c46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0620065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No50c45.62$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.75966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed No76c44.88$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.843154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes40c44.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.77911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-76.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No77c43.65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.063545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes45c40.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1818158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes59c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.416738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes36c38.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8218035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No58c37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.618762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…fe00backed Yes54c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes64c37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.684233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x197f…0caebacked Yes38c36.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.781457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes51c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.85131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes38c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.253641.7%15 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb35…0988backed No58c32.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No66c31.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5215558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No66c31.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.572556%14 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96b1…8136backed Yes43c30.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ad…8d47backed Yes50c30.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.924637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.261735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c29.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4910864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.413762.2%23 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes47c29.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8611053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No68c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.067561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No69c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.786850%34 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No73c27.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.428672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes49c25.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.385875.9%44 W · 14 L+7.8wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.752347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes59c23.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.042748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.