Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ec8d1cb89a36ce994eea996e5f80dccb432ddb77a3004fccf1cd4134ed39853
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $545,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $399,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $545,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 375 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 16c | 34,857$5,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,430.01 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 12c | 20,931$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 12c | 20,487$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,393.63 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 14c | 11,002$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.45 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb641…34ffbacked Yes | 47c | 8,380$3,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,928.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 14c | 8,290$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.28 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 5c | 7,287$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.28 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae4…aa62backed No | 77c | 6,808$5,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 31c | 6,228$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.06 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 15c | 5,851$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.84 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 25c | 5,718$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.89 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 11c | 5,354$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.48 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 28c | 5,327$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.94 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 5,219$3,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.02 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 10c | 5,126$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.98 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 4,940$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.51 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 19c | 4,902$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.23 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,755$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.18 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 7c | 4,691$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.52 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 46c | 4,378$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.87 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 23c | 4,302$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.2 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 17c | 4,142$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.7 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 4,126$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.97 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,072$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 70c | 4,036$2,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.32 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 7c | 3,833$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.73 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3821…bde6backed Yes | 1c | 3,590$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 15c | 3,432$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.91 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 9c | 3,273$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.19 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 5c | 3,200$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.93 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 3,070$2,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.8 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 22c | 3,015$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.27 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 17c | 3,004$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.1 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b6adbacked Yes | 23c | 2,950$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,893$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 73c | 2,682$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.1 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…64b4backed Yes | 10c | 2,677$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…c153backed No | 76c | 2,671$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 2c | 2,588$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 76c | 2,554$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.63 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 71c | 2,508$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.19 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…e21ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,491$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 12c | 2,457$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.3 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb466…4953backed Yes | 15c | 2,430$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +307.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,401$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.83 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…f025backed Yes | 19c | 2,389$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,358$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.71 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…ada5backed Yes | 4c | 2,277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +205.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 63c | 2,237$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.08 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,201$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.48 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 7c | 2,129$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.27 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 20c | 2,103$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.12 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…6e06backed Yes | 12c | 2,050$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 9c | 2,023$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.26 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 26c | 2,000$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.9 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…746fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,933$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.42 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 1,914$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.46 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 1,906$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 12c | 1,900$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.62 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 74c | 1,751$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.08 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 36c | 1,610$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.56 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 15c | 1,568$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.6 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 31c | 1,527$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.39 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 12c | 1,501$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 3c | 1,491$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 31c | 1,480$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 8c | 1,437$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 21c | 1,325$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.92 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 29c | 1,266$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,240$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.17 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 15c | 1,213$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.19 | 178 | 24.7%44 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes | 5c | 1,199$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 78c | 1,190$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…ffddbacked Yes | 17c | 1,169$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,156$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 13c | 1,151$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.86 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 26c | 1,142$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.31 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 20c | 1,112$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.11 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 11c | 1,101$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.39 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked No | 79c | 1,100$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.44 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 64c | 1,086$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e88…b898backed Yes | 10c | 1,080$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 28c | 1,058$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 11c | 1,010$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…e755backed Yes | 10c | 1,009$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,009$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 101 | 5%5 W · 96 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 44c | 999.99$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.53 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 8c | 986.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 13c | 973.41$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 66c | 918.45$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.16 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 2c | 899.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes | 2c | 898.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 119 | 4.2%5 W · 114 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 5c | 891.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 40c | 861.45$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.25 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 19c | 860.87$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.43 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 14c | 851.76$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 13c | 838.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.41 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…f5e1backed Yes | 19c | 827.76$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.