Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x384573a458ce44c9cac7be02bc7ec7e03d9fd57b9af01d478fa327b06e7e7ff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $338,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $346,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 420 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 42c | 27,806$11,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,178.88 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 59c | 7,043$4,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,869.79 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…b040backed No | 17c | 5,753$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 39c | 5,683$2,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,489.87 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 61c | 5,097$3,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,962.67 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 72c | 5,063$3,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.27 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 34c | 4,339$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.33 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 67c | 4,201$2,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.8 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 34c | 4,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,639.99 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 63c | 3,907$2,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.1 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 36c | 3,812$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457.99 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 35c | 3,633$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.7 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed No | 1c | 3,360$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 186 | 3.8%7 W · 179 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 58c | 3,300$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.08 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 2,839$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.73 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 44c | 2,664$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.31 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,643$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.11 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…e21ebacked Yes | 26c | 2,585$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 68c | 2,581$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.46 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 35c | 2,325$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.82 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 47c | 2,253$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.78 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 37c | 2,248$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.19 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 44c | 2,168$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.82 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…ada5backed Yes | 16c | 2,073$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +205.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 14c | 2,003$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.85 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 34c | 2,000$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.75 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,983$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.52 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 1,920$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.86 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…6541backed No | 47c | 1,806$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 37c | 1,758$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.35 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,732$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.74 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…746dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,717$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.41 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 49c | 1,706$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.97 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 54c | 1,633$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.6 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 41c | 1,611$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.31 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d0…542cbacked No | 2c | 1,440$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…ffddbacked Yes | 40c | 1,394$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.17 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…6931backed Yes | 9c | 1,360$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.78 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 46c | 1,358$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.74 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 18c | 1,311$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.07 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 31c | 1,302$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.2 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 1,272$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.39 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,268$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.94 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes | 33c | 1,252$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.82 | 164 | 17.1%28 W · 136 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 1,250$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.65 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…06babacked Yes | 70c | 1,240$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…746fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,236$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.25 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 43c | 1,223$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.91 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,218$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.98 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 10c | 1,201$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.07 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…d100backed Yes | 59c | 1,197$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.68 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625b…3a3ebacked Yes | 62c | 1,195$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.82 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…af43backed Yes | 60c | 1,159$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.28 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 49c | 1,111$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.58 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 31c | 1,100$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 19c | 1,081$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.92 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 34c | 1,072$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.87 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 19c | 1,044$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.01 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.99 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 40c | 998.87$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.87 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 19c | 967.11$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.36 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 30c | 961.98$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.73 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 62c | 945.81$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.26 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 11c | 936.36$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.36 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 12c | 933.46$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.44 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 33c | 917.09$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.65 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…64b4backed Yes | 59c | 853.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 44c | 853.3$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.57 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…ec93backed No | 80c | 836.1$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.85 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 80cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 43c | 830.56$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.14 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 58c | 801.31$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.83 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 56c | 800$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.02 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 9c | 798.03$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.19 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b6adbacked Yes | 52c | 776.58$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 770$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.4 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 54c | 754.17$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.17 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 730.08$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.5 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes | 67c | 728.99$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.99 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 30c | 713.32$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.89 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…35c2backed Yes | 61c | 710.32$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.32 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…a1e1backed Yes | 20c | 708.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.7 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 9c | 703$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.12 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ab…af97backed No | 39c | 702.51$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 14c | 697.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.63 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 36c | 694.51$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.94 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 55c | 667.81$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.81 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 76c | 665.13$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.87 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed Yes | 20c | 664.81$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.47 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…bc06backed Yes | 65c | 654.79$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…4a7dbacked Yes | 38c | 653.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 31c | 628.88$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.91 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4265…851fbacked Yes | 79c | 607$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 33c | 604.32$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.73 | 161 | 24.2%39 W · 122 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd4…30aebacked Yes | 65c | 595.77$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.77 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 52c | 595.6$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.44 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 51c | 583.69$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.36 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 76c | 571.82$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.83 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 18c | 571$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.41 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 21c | 560.39$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.