Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x240a60c7ceebfe5592df1f36d82303048c36817ce305923a8f89e306f1b544e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $255,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,769$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 2c | 11,664$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.39 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,410$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 4c | 6,142$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,944$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,455$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 4,914$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,218$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 1c | 3,478$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,361$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.57 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 3,348$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 3,330$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 6c | 3,295$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.08 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 3,166$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 2,996$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 1c | 2,938$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes | 1c | 2,811$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,766$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 6c | 2,627$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed Yes | 1c | 2,352$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 1c | 2,001$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 119 | 4.2%5 W · 114 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,708$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 1c | 1,599$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,525$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 2c | 1,479$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 5c | 1,044$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 1,015$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 1c | 788.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 688.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed Yes | 3c | 560.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…06dabacked Yes | 6c | 348.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 8c | 328.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 161 | 24.2%39 W · 122 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3821…bde6backed Yes | 6c | 273.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 244.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c2…a8f9backed Yes | 9c | 203.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…5704backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.