TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$112,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,017 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes0c19,084$43 inLost-$43.382009%18 W · 182 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+173%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c6,421$78 inLost-$78.161,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes1c3,638$41 inLost-$40.524418.2%8 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes4c3,105$137 inLost-$137.3188018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes4c2,500$91 inLost-$91.375718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes1c2,324$21 inLost-$20.671557.7%12 W · 143 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes4c2,034$87 inLost-$86.9679811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes1c1,600$13 inLost-$12.688610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes5c1,437$72 inLost-$71.8441230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes5c1,425$65 inLost-$65.0757621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c1,273$24 inLost-$24.062,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes3c1,244$31 inLost-$31.2110710.3%11 W · 96 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13e1…0805backed Yes2c1,068$23 inLost-$22.671216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcadc…4285backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$109728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes2c947.04$19 inLost-$18.619215.6%30 W · 162 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes3c938$29 inLost-$291,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes2c900.43$19 inLost-$18.9162713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes2c864.31$17 inLost-$17.2512227%33 W · 89 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes3c795.2$23 inLost-$23.467828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes2c769.65$19 inLost-$18.965535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes4c733.67$30 inLost-$3019819.7%39 W · 159 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed Yes2c580.29$11 inLost-$11.027252.8%38 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes3c545.87$19 inLost-$18.8853522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes6c523.11$31 inLost-$31.0388017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes6c445.75$25 inLost-$256026.7%16 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes3c350$10 inLost-$10.2721028.6%60 W · 150 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes4c300.43$11 inLost-$10.761,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes5c300$14 inLost-$13.89711.3%11 W · 86 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes6c241$13 inLost-$13.4373215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$107410.8%8 W · 66 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes8c149.98$12 inLost-$12407.5%3 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.