Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09d73612338cb0f38c7ef4fb29c5e9f98362cceae866d5f3123791b4a8a5a786
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $392,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $392,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd507…4342backed Yes | 1c | 30,254$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 0c | 19,589$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 0c | 18,636$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 14,111$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 1c | 11,397$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.18 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 21c | 10,240$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.44 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 0c | 8,900$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 6c | 8,861$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.34 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 12c | 6,680$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.94 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 0c | 6,247$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…f1d1backed Yes | 29c | 6,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.12 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…a543backed Yes | 31c | 4,712$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 39c | 4,233$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.94 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed No | 77c | 4,204$3,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.63 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 21c | 4,127$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.8 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed No | 70c | 3,909$2,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.85 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 13c | 3,900$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.04 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 67c | 3,497$2,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.32 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,495$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.49 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 1c | 2,998$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 19c | 2,801$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.96 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,488$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…4375backed Yes | 12c | 2,400$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 254 | 13.4%34 W · 220 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…53bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 188 | 8%15 W · 173 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +86%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…26f7backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 67c | 2,298$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.51 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 64c | 2,105$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.91 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 25c | 2,012$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.1 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,992$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.41 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 27c | 1,979$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.85 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 62c | 1,878$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.67 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,868$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.36 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 3c | 1,791$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 1,674$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 40c | 1,670$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.8 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 13c | 1,605$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…af43backed Yes | 27c | 1,597$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.5 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…06babacked Yes | 10c | 1,560$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.47 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 33c | 1,485$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.19 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,482$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 64c | 1,472$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.88 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,471$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 16c | 1,360$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.51 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 4c | 1,357$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…64b4backed Yes | 49c | 1,337$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,315$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.43 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,310$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4067…6ffabacked Yes | 14c | 1,305$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.18 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed No | 66c | 1,213$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…a1e1backed Yes | 23c | 1,080$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.2 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,078$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 101 | 5%5 W · 96 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 40c | 999.71$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 17c | 988.96$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.98 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…0b55backed No | 79c | 887.47$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 17c | 860.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.51 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…ec93backed No | 80c | 835.45$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.15 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 80cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 3c | 801.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 36c | 799.99$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…e21ebacked Yes | 27c | 774.33$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.78 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 3c | 769$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes | 29c | 761.9$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.81 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 28c | 760.94$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.41 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 67c | 756.94$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.25 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 11c | 756.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 72c | 741.58$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.05 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…ffddbacked Yes | 20c | 734.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes | 8c | 708.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 164 | 17.1%28 W · 136 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 72c | 687.39$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.47 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b6adbacked Yes | 37c | 681.18$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 60c | 680$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.7 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 10c | 669$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 27c | 634.17$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.54 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 35c | 599.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ce…f073backed No | 78c | 599.86$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 79c | 597.94$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 25c | 596.24$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 39c | 570.46$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.83 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 11c | 557.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 16c | 542.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked Yes | 12c | 535.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…c1afbacked Yes | 31c | 520.76$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…8039backed Yes | 27c | 515.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 492.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes | 17c | 483.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 478.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.26 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…f5e1backed No | 69c | 468.29$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.9 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 74cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed Yes | 2c | 416.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 23c | 403.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…5704backed Yes | 4c | 402.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 49c | 401.36$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 31c | 400$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 379$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.47 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 372.37$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.