TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9034…4375

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
294
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Tennis, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 55 out of 100; worst UFC at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT25413.4%34 W · 220 L-0.6wins0.00per pick14cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 254 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+6,566.7%+$2,462.5
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.22
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$329.34
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$296
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.31
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.99
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$284.99
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.99
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.69
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+400%+$1,021.87
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$264
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.19
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.72
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$196
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$87
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.54
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+204.5%+$283.22
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$265.1
Showing 25 of 254 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+53%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$29.5
World Championships: Canada vs. Finlandbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+116.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Will Canada vs. Iceland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+332.6%+$111.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sunbacked Los Angeles Sparks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Skybacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifierbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.