Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x700dceb5257c664de091156f768a4024e2817ad1b41ca7302efdee9e6ebd6a69

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $324,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $214,561

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $324,788 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	15c	37,621$5,468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,467.75	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	10,345$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.49	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	10,020$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.44	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	10c	8,003$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$771.95	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	27c	7,559$2,028 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,027.96	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	10c	6,987$722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$721.7	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	20c	6,009$1,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,201.85	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	9c	5,217$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.13	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	7c	3,887$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.1	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No	79c	3,860$3,061 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$799.37	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	4c	3,753$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.62	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	21c	3,540$733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732.93	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	24c	3,511$852 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$851.86	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed No	78c	3,500$2,745 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$754.99	108	66.7%72 W · 36 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	3,315$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.27	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	25c	3,202$796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795.59	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	3c	3,200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	8c	3,038$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.23	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	31c	2,988$921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920.84	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	25c	2,787$696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$695.72	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	2,600$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.87	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	26c	2,260$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.67	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	2,219$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.61	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	2c	2,200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.3	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	4c	2,181$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	78c	2,091$1,624 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$466.53	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	7c	2,000$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.19	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	32c	1,948$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.5	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	27c	1,850$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.49	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	9c	1,829$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.32	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	16c	1,800$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.25	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	14c	1,664$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.69	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	14c	1,589$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.65	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd5a…2ff7backed Yes	11c	1,574$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.35	147	21.8%32 W · 115 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa59e…06edbacked Yes	2c	1,542$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.01	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	18c	1,541$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.01	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	12c	1,426$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.48	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	2c	1,400$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	21c	1,400$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.58	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	3c	1,396$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.45	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes	16c	1,392$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	2c	1,368$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.24	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	22c	1,359$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.3	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ccf…bdb5backed Yes	28c	1,350$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.61	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	15c	1,348$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.2	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes	29c	1,270$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.86	177	20.9%37 W · 140 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	3c	1,179$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.63	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	2c	1,164$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.14	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	11c	1,070$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.05	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed No	65c	1,050$685 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364.98	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes	3c	1,040$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.53	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	11c	1,037$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.94	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	13c	1,019$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.41	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	14c	1,016$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb44…d480backed Yes	32c	1,000$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.07	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	992$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.67	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	22c	985.24$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.27	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	12c	963.92$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.83	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes	21c	963.75$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.99	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf595…0842backed Yes	23c	955.47$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.52	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+33.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes	6c	954.34$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.43	107	38.3%41 W · 66 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	20c	948.53$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.65	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	21c	911.2$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.44	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	73c	900$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	14c	842.26$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.62	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed No	73c	817.05$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.05	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes	26c	802.47$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ce…f073backed No	78c	777$606 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.94	17	82.4%14 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	72cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes	15c	772.73$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.92	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes	4c	754.83$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.45	107	46.7%50 W · 57 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	5c	732.77$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.27	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes	4c	708.14$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.63	118	47.5%56 W · 62 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	24c	705.63$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.46	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	11c	703.11$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.11	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	72c	699.94$502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.98	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	4c	694.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.88	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes	7c	687.68$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.58	104	38.5%40 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes	3c	685.24$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.03	133	23.3%31 W · 102 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	22c	669.42$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.27	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x708e…9bb1backed Yes	30c	666.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd846…e24abacked Yes	5c	660.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No	65c	608.71$397 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.41	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	16c	606$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.58	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	3c	600$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b27…7908backed Yes	5c	599.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	97	27.8%27 W · 70 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+67.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	22c	599.31$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.76	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa32d…df56backed No	76c	594.38$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.54	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6442…cdc3backed Yes	17c	582.32$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.68	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes	7c	571.75$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.23	126	42.9%54 W · 72 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	23c	554.26$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.52	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	22c	550.03$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.53	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea9…575fbacked Yes	19c	549.96$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.49	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+2.4wins	+0.26per pick	40cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	70c	548.3$386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.88	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	22c	520.29$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.46	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…1c78backed Yes	11c	513.63$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	29c	513.56$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	4c	505.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	36c	504.98$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.79	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1425…d60dbacked Yes	24c	500$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	107	42.1%45 W · 62 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event