Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25b18612fa315d37d7decf545312487453fd502aab8c680e65814b967c3d8302

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $162,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $84,353

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,029 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x524d…4495backed Yes	0c	71,362$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.19	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	13,919$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.71	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	6c	5,788$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.65	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	7c	3,107$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.8	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	1c	2,361$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd376…231dbacked Yes	16c	1,867$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	1,685$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.31	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	1,517$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	1,429$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.55	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	1,350$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.65	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,156$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.62	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	620.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	12c	592.06$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.74	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	9c	514.88$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.99	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	16c	463$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.08	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	7c	421.51$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.38	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	11c	371.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	367.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.41	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes	12c	260$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	7c	250.59$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	12c	249.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	5c	222.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes	15c	218.87$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.83	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	9c	217.58$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.83	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ca…58adbacked Yes	12c	216.03$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	17c	209$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.53	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	60	11.7%7 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	77	31.2%24 W · 53 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	0%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…67b8backed Yes	17c	199.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	97	24.7%24 W · 73 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c0f…a214backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	10c	126.03$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dae…0590backed Yes	17c	110.04$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	16c	104.38$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.7	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea9…575fbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+2.4wins	+0.26per pick	40cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc55f…9475backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	11c	98.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c47…2121backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event