Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadd9c6455bff5de2caab9cfb522fd14806fff10d30b6a7086c2717b457d14c73

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $316,810
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $161,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,810 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	47,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	9c	28,815$2,725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,725	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	14,535$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.45	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	8,381$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.75	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	0c	7,106$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	1c	6,839$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.27	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	5,812$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.71	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	5,000$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.08	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	7c	4,551$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.44	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb29c…d8b9backed Yes	3c	3,807$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.21	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	3,730$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.82	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	3,117$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.7	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	5c	2,532$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.44	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	4c	2,500$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.3	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	1c	2,492$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.68	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	2,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	2,273$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.87	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	11c	2,191$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.86	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	8c	2,100$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.8	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	4c	2,073$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.11	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	21c	2,039$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.16	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	1c	2,037$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	4c	2,037$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.59	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	2c	2,035$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.86	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	1,985$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.24	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,950$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.99	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,917$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.13	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	5c	1,809$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.51	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	10c	1,615$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.22	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	23c	1,614$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.13	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes	1c	1,580$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.91	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	5c	1,567$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.11	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	23c	1,526$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.88	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes	17c	1,436$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	3c	1,363$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	13c	1,302$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.68	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x708e…9bb1backed Yes	16c	1,283$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	15c	1,246$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.25	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	8c	1,243$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.44	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	14c	1,240$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.71	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes	17c	1,221$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.96	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	14c	1,210$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.94	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d27…2b9ebacked Yes	9c	1,134$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.37per pick	23cpaid	+110.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb44…d480backed Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.73	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	23c	999.96$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.99	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes	10c	972.3$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.23	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccf…bdb5backed Yes	20c	966.48$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	76c	954.11$729 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.87	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	12c	928.35$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.35	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90af…a42cbacked No	77c	927.47$718 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.55	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	69cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd182…0783backed Yes	1c	920.36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	9c	896.16$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.06	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	887.49$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.28	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	10c	825.53$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.4	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	2c	823.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	10c	823.25$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.51	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	10c	822.72$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.84	161	24.2%39 W · 122 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	799.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	798$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.25	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	10c	783.5$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.9	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	20c	772.84$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7557…7579backed Yes	23c	703.53$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.44	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	14c	679.35$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.71	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	13c	637.15$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.77	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	7c	616.96$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.25	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf595…0842backed Yes	24c	613.61$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.47	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+33.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	6c	604$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.72	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	12c	573.53$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.52	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	4c	560$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.32	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	560$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c2…f725backed Yes	5c	537$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.85	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9611…e89ebacked Yes	13c	536.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	10c	498$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.52	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb77f…8b69backed Yes	21c	491.1$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.23	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	14c	454.98$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.23	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	16c	447.45$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.54	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes	16c	443.68$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+137.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	7c	440$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.32	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	79c	409.76$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.05	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	12c	403.33$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.24	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	11c	401.42$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.23	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3107…fe91backed Yes	22c	400$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.55	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…d0e7backed Yes	21c	400$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.73	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	5c	400$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6de…8d6abacked Yes	22c	400$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.1	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d93…3741backed Yes	21c	400$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.22	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+22%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa45f…4f97backed Yes	21c	400$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49e2…0124backed Yes	21c	400$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98f7…e2a4backed Yes	22c	399.99$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcefe…895dbacked Yes	21c	399.99$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.5	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+31%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c66…01d9backed Yes	21c	399.99$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.7	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0630…3fcdbacked Yes	22c	399.99$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	7c	399.67$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes	14c	390$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.55	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc83f…9d5cbacked Yes	24c	382.5$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes	21c	373.05$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.34	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event