Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0dbde83f686939e7383d93dd55af5044aa93c46a5733a1f80cb74c5ad206914

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $157,884
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,670

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,884 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	10,181$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.05	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	8,353$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.33	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd376…231dbacked Yes	6c	7,460$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	3c	7,183$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.99	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	6,568$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.51	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	0c	5,666$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	3c	5,459$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.55	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	1c	4,395$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.83	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	4,000$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.8	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes	2c	3,310$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.3	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	2c	3,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	4c	2,904$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.46	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,785$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.2	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	2,492$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.28	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,158$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.82	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	5c	2,005$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.02	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,989$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.09	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,954$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.77	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	4c	1,801$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.18	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	2c	1,515$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.34	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	3c	1,502$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.35	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	3c	1,099$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.49	161	24.2%39 W · 122 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	1,047$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.99	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	5c	1,022$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.57	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	1,004$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.46	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	999.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes	5c	831.04$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.38	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	3c	800$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	800$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	2c	731.95$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.33	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	709.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	2c	661.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	5c	573.84$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.19	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	511.02$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	3c	505.07$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x710c…ec59backed Yes	2c	499.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	4c	499.6$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.85	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	499.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes	2c	468$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed32…df4abacked Yes	3c	397.61$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	350$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	7c	306.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9307…8910backed Yes	7c	294.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	4c	290.78$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.98	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+102.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	60	11.7%7 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event