Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1875ab4cc1323ffda97886e99242b52fba99b6fc715ec4ae27c65b200bcac753
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 4c | 19,308$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.7 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 3c | 8,698$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.52 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 0c | 7,705$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 7,476$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.92 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 6,557$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,555$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 7c | 4,955$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.35 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 10c | 4,384$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.65 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 4,219$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 4,031$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.01 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.87 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 8c | 3,957$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.41 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,688$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.3 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes | 6c | 3,360$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.7 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 3,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 186 | 3.8%7 W · 179 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 7c | 3,030$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 151 | 5.3%8 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +227.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,227$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 6c | 2,178$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 6c | 2,100$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 3c | 1,757$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd376…231dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,685$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,590$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…0813backed Yes | 3c | 1,305$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 277 | 7.9%22 W · 255 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 5c | 1,267$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 161 | 24.2%39 W · 122 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 1,133$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 7c | 1,118$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 1,090$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,079$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes | 9c | 1,072$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 967.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 1c | 858.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 3c | 764.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 4c | 758.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9f…9971backed Yes | 6c | 730$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 352 | 12.8%45 W · 307 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 3c | 583.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 6c | 567.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 5c | 535.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 105 | 12.4%13 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…ec59backed Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…23cabacked Yes | 5c | 499.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes | 5c | 498.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 478.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 6c | 468.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 6c | 441.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed Yes | 3c | 424.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 11c | 381.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 6c | 371.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 193 | 14%27 W · 166 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes | 3c | 323.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…df4abacked Yes | 4c | 319.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 12c | 290$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…abe7backed Yes | 13c | 284.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…4043backed Yes | 12c | 243.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…8910backed Yes | 12c | 243.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…e2a4backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3107…fe91backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefe…895dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…01d9backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…d0e7backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb77f…8b69backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0630…3fcdbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2594…bacdbacked Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…8d6abacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…3741backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…6bb7backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…4f97backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…0124backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…8853backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…3ccebacked Yes | 9c | 175$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 125 | 14.4%18 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 8c | 140.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6933…0f16backed Yes | 12c | 107.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 475 | 10.5%50 W · 425 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5b…40cabacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes | 12c | 92.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.