TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1bc0…6bb7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 37.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT2133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.59
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.75
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+289.5%+$148.65
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+145.7%+$59.3
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.63
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+300%+$75
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$506Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+33.6%+$170.02
All 21 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-4.7wins-0.30per pick61cpaid-55.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$31.22
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.06
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.82
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.66
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.19
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.65
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.14
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.99
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.64
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.57
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.8
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.08
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.28
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$38.56
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.52
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.47
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+517.3%+$108.94
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.9
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.8
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.61
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.49
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.34
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.4
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$46
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$53
All 12 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$328.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.