Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f1fb635efc9148fba0684aa7829fb0e678df3e8e56d0a197f6e2ad0f740cb45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 34c | 17,503$5,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,903.64 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 41c | 7,127$2,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950.88 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 26c | 6,137$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.37 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 50c | 3,559$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.26 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 46c | 3,150$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.89 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 15c | 2,677$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.63 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 38c | 2,603$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.15 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 18c | 2,515$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.29 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 62c | 2,294$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.4 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe122…0b62backed Yes | 6c | 2,280$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 44c | 2,095$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.23 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 75c | 2,083$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.14 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 3c | 2,023$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 67c | 2,015$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.83 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 7c | 2,002$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 24c | 2,001$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.82 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 17c | 1,896$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.23 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 43c | 1,809$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.94 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 46c | 1,755$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.56 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 34c | 1,660$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.91 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 54c | 1,572$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.73 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,566$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.87 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 55c | 1,543$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.33 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 13c | 1,535$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.32 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 28c | 1,399$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.6 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,358$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.38 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 21c | 1,150$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.2 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 8c | 1,140$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes | 36c | 1,121$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,066$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.23 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 1,065$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 1,018$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.49 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 52c | 1,015$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.52 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 26c | 1,003$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.63 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 46c | 996.46$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.01 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 15c | 920.12$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.68 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3678…6459backed Yes | 27c | 906.26$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 879.75$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.33 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 869.66$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.47 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 14c | 842.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.21 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed Yes | 14c | 818.19$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 36c | 811.18$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.26 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 48c | 795.62$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.24 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 7c | 720.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 712.85$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.98 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 39c | 700.45$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 37c | 692.82$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.86 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 24c | 689.8$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…f16dbacked Yes | 32c | 660.48$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 38c | 654.89$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.6 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…8c91backed Yes | 46c | 648.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 23c | 647.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.53 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 46c | 645.89$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.95 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…badabacked Yes | 10c | 630.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 628.4$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.59 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc9…29ffbacked Yes | 51c | 615.56$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 29c | 546.01$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 28c | 542.78$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.66 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 57c | 526.31$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.38 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 38c | 511$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.23 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 32c | 507.37$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.72 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 20c | 500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 44c | 500$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 20c | 488.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292f…918dbacked Yes | 47c | 485.94$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.09 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 57c | 473.6$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.26 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 31c | 457.12$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 444.93$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 440.15$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.92 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 432.55$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8916…db60backed Yes | 59c | 427.64$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed No | 56c | 396.78$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.26 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 28c | 370.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 76c | 358.33$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 357.07$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.47 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 353.96$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.71 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…4c88backed Yes | 52c | 349.04$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…db99backed Yes | 14c | 345.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…6e3cbacked No | 46c | 336.94$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.78 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 27c | 320$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 32c | 295.88$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 312 | 24.7%77 W · 235 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 295.74$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.69 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 285$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.35 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 32c | 270$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 39c | 259.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…fe01backed Yes | 19c | 259.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 58c | 248.9$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 17c | 248.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 243.62$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 77c | 234.7$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 231.48$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 228.04$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 227.52$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc4…0e3cbacked Yes | 20c | 226.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +156.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 224.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…67b8backed Yes | 20c | 206.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 48c | 204.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.