Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5d59a70d32b15d32f1bfccdddbf28ce5379f6310804b9b95f2847c031c0fac8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 0c | 12,818$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 37c | 9,518$3,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,986.7 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 29c | 9,484$2,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,761.6 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 59c | 6,541$3,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.92 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 25c | 4,181$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,139.91 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 36c | 1,920$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.84 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 38c | 1,597$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.8 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 80c | 1,467$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.44 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 74c | 1,336$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.79 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 39c | 1,278$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.77 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 45c | 1,263$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.24 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 65c | 1,081$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.48 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 45c | 1,006$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.42 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 12c | 999.97$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.53 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 977.09$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.1 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 20c | 920.96$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.54 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 19c | 861.12$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.22 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 855.66$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.12 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 29c | 819.28$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.92 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…4c88backed Yes | 48c | 809.31$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.31 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 63c | 701.19$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.55 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 37c | 700.52$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.65 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 29c | 622.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.79 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 38c | 599.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.6 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 34c | 592.25$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.97 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes | 31c | 553.37$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 540.1$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.31 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 58c | 533.61$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.09 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 71c | 518.86$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 35c | 500$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.39 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…83d6backed No | 77c | 476.27$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.7 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 18c | 456.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 47c | 446.45$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.28 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 53c | 441.29$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.09 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 440.25$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 10c | 387.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.74 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 30c | 380.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.16 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 378.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 55c | 377.91$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.46 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 18c | 377.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.18 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 73c | 356.82$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 64c | 350$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 58c | 329.99$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 69c | 318.41$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 64c | 314$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 18c | 300.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.97 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 38c | 290.01$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 35c | 282.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.13 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 260$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.34 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 49c | 260$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.27 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 72c | 250.94$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 40c | 246.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.64 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc4…0e3cbacked Yes | 75c | 236.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +156.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…a51bbacked No | 30c | 231$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…8d4dbacked Yes | 17c | 230.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.21 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 26c | 221.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.45 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 21c | 216.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.73 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 208.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9298…de2cbacked Yes | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 74c | 199.97$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 53c | 194.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes | 11c | 191.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.86 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671f…b191backed Yes | 76c | 183$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 33c | 176.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.85 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5393…966abacked Yes | 46c | 174.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 18c | 173.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.78 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked No | 80c | 173$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.03 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 165$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 157.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 29c | 155.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.63 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 78c | 154.61$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 76c | 152.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 67c | 148.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 22c | 139.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 64c | 139.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 137.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 130.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.95 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f83…3c80backed No | 75c | 130.53$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 125.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 20c | 124.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb810…8919backed Yes | 32c | 123.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 75c | 120.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625b…3a3ebacked Yes | 76c | 119.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 11c | 119.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…2b78backed Yes | 73c | 115.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 32c | 110.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes | 43c | 110.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 26c | 109.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 60c | 107.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 23c | 102$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 24c | 102$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked No | 74c | 100.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…fae3backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.