Wallet 0xd092…342a
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xd092ec91cec1e2e2ee39755d2e883cd7bedb342a
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 4
- What they are worth now
- $582
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50
bought for $400
worth $0
Its 4 running positions
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?backed Yes | 312.5shares | 32c | 87c | $270 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?backed Yes | 125.31shares | 80c | 94c | $117 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?backed Yes | 162.87shares | 61c | 61c | $100 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?backed Yes | 144.93shares | 69c | 66c | $95 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 — we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet sitting at exactly that number is holding more than we counted. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets vs. Blues: O/U 5.5backed Over · resolved | 1,923shares | 52c | $0 | Counted |
| Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5backed Over · resolved | 1,923shares | 52c | $0 | Counted |
| Hurricanes vs. Panthersbacked Hurricanes · resolved | 1,852shares | 54c | $0 | Counted |
| Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed Natus Vincere · resolved | 1,729shares | 52c | $0 | Counted |
| AFC Ajax vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 2.5backed Over · resolved | 1,421shares | 63c | $0 | Counted |
Do these count towards the record above? 5 do — the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table below.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 2,280
- Categories scored
- 32
- Categories below 50
- 15
Best Category: Tweets, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).
Best Category Tweets at 62 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 42.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 2,280 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 200 | 54.5%109 W · 91 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagueslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| La Ligalast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Serie Alast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Mlslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.