TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Ravens (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Steelersof Ravens, Steelers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,351,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,497,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,351,342 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 381 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Steelers49c2,227,986$1,091,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136,580.4986547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Ravens51c1,296,170$664,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664,997.5311145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e25…0af8backed Ravens51c460,373$234,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234,790.481136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Ravens51c320,000$163,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,200650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Ravens50c195,172$97,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,58619553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Ravens51c189,216$96,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,5005648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Steelers47c148,936$70,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,936.173767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Ravens52c80,000$41,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,6002441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Ravens50c78,093$39,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,227.216051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Steelers45c60,478$27,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,263.1411445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Ravens50c57,777$28,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,888.57655.3%42 W · 34 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Steelers51c42,895$21,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,042.683342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Steelers51c40,020$20,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,609.89359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Steelers49c40,000$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,4002657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Steelers52c38,462$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,461.545154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Steelers48c31,589$15,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,578.261,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Steelers48c29,612$14,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,517.153348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Ravens50c26,121$13,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,060.411764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+45.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Steelers52c25,202$13,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,096.9656852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Ravens50c22,500$11,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,29526547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Steelers49c17,154$8,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,818.6339447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Ravens55c16,578$9,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,117.9716955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ravens46c16,069$7,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,341.3550242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Steelers47c15,896$7,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,383.849754.6%53 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Steelers47c14,840$6,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,865.432850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Ravens53c11,555$6,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,075.2324056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Ravens26c11,005$2,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,825.9212748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Ravens51c10,824$5,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5205149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Ravens51c10,294$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,25014252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Steelers47c10,183$4,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,431.1777052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Ravens50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Ravens48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80023937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Steelers51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90016860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Steelers49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.9710650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Ravens50c9,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Steelers51c8,633$4,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,242.1259453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Steelers52c8,500$4,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,080366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Steelers51c8,398$4,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,141.2354451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Steelers51c8,000$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,95051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Ravens51c8,000$4,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,119.9912944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Ravens50c7,545$3,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,772.52638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Ravens48c7,435$3,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,568.5627454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf77…bae9backed Ravens55c7,407$4,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0901010%1 W · 9 L-4.3wins-0.43per pick53cpaid-83.1%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Ravens52c7,300$3,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,79625744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Ravens57c7,038$4,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,035.952944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Ravens55c6,540$3,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5977051.4%36 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Ravens54c6,535$3,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,528.94452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Steelers46c6,522$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,521.7418650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Steelers47c6,500$3,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,469.9983147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Steelers50c6,000$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,01015252.6%80 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Ravens55c6,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3006639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Ravens50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Steelers50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5007464.9%48 W · 26 L+9.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked Ravens51c4,902$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5006162.3%38 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9e…0262backed Ravens51c4,900$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Steelers47c4,619$2,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.5673651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3f…8e2bbacked Ravens55c4,584$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,517.62944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed Ravens50c4,400$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Steelers48c4,000$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,07518650.5%94 W · 92 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb973…ff16backed Ravens56c3,571$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Ravens54c3,301$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,768.3747348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Steelers47c3,191$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.494240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Steelers48c3,101$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.0212550.4%63 W · 62 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Ravens50c3,029$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.4124957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Ravens48c2,876$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.153743.2%16 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Steelers51c2,680$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.4721254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Steelers51c2,642$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.619447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Ravens50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2501154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Steelers44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.9719240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea89…0b5fbacked Ravens55c2,364$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3005046%23 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Ravens52c2,327$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2103740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Steelers51c2,305$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.4175852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Steelers52c2,220$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.3734349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Steelers46c2,100$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.741060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Steelers49c2,073$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.799855.1%54 W · 44 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1895…efd2backed Steelers50c2,054$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.085234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Steelers49c2,012$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.0520354.7%111 W · 92 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Ravens50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007534.7%26 W · 49 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Ravens50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007152.1%37 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Steelers49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02028447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Ravens50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010547.6%50 W · 55 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Steelers50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00014035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Ravens55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.997646.1%35 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Steelers51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.37862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Ravens50c1,952$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.876246.8%29 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Ravens55c1,872$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.845246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Ravens51c1,800$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9185352.8%28 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4da6…59fabacked Steelers46c1,798$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.043650%18 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Ravens53c1,750$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.646549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bfa…bc94backed Steelers47c1,607$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.313622.2%8 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8021…0da8backed Ravens49c1,605$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.734551.1%23 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Ravens50c1,600$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8003148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Steelers45c1,500$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82536246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Ravens50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75026648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Ravens51c1,438$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73065048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Ravens51c1,400$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7149248.9%45 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc719…2487backed Steelers45c1,384$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.172100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Ravens50c1,338$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67517251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Ravens50c1,293$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.4513560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6d28…a73cbacked Ravens61c1,252$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.061127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.