TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Ravens vs. Steelers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Steelersof Ravens, Steelers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,103,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,738,600

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,103,668 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,383 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xccb2…8586backed Steelers34c1,481,118$503,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977,537.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Ravens65c1,150,858$751,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,036.3711145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Ravens66c757,313$499,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499,826.332025%5 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Steelers35c291,636$102,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189,563.563767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Ravens67c227,057$151,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,864.4419152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Steelers34c200,095$68,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132,062.884955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Steelers33c192,959$63,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129,301.032065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Ravens65c170,669$111,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,503.6216955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Steelers41c165,172$67,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,275.7330043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed Ravens1c149,193$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.937131%22 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Steelers34c145,906$49,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,076.8186547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Steelers37c116,834$42,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,124.7153348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Ravens67c100,558$67,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,374.056459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Ravens68c92,518$62,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,892.9324652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Steelers48c81,111$39,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,044.378747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Steelers32c75,798$24,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,542.7319553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ravens66c73,275$48,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,581.3675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Steelers37c67,568$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,567.575154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Ravens67c65,666$43,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,996.074440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Ravens66c63,185$41,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,517.2227454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Steelers36c60,248$21,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,77720026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Steelers34c58,800$19,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,807.962161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Ravens65c57,802$37,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,777.5611643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Ravens67c56,911$37,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,958.7739447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Steelers36c55,555$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,555.22657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Ravens48c54,377$26,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,101.053135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Ravens68c53,082$36,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,095.516860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Steelers28c50,000$14,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,799.963548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Steelers33c45,455$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,454.5518650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Ravens54c39,234$21,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,266.761258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked Steelers32c37,284$11,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,352.941957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Steelers33c36,036$11,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,144.364252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Steelers35c35,430$12,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,028.14852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Ravens68c34,967$23,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,773.746764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Steelers38c34,512$12,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,554.092152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Ravens67c32,941$22,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,070.589754.6%53 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Steelers32c29,807$9,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,27730743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Ravens67c29,500$19,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,764.9312944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x166a…e675backed Steelers55c29,275$16,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,170.681050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Ravens56c28,390$15,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,951.367736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Ravens64c28,100$18,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,096.946639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Steelers32c27,980$8,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,026.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf924…45c1backed Ravens67c27,251$18,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,257.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Ravens66c26,721$17,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,535.931,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76f…1eacbacked Steelers16c25,625$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,5252070%14 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+60.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Ravens65c24,560$15,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,963.9116545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Ravens59c23,814$14,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,051.341729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-38.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Ravens64c22,388$14,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,280.312544%11 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ravens50c20,131$10,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,091.9423244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Ravens65c20,005$13,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,003.24540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Steelers35c20,000$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,999.96955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Ravens78c19,904$15,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,436.0512748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Ravens74c18,931$13,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,943.093743.2%16 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Ravens45c18,560$8,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,379.0419235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Ravens66c18,177$11,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,996.612955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d0…1757backed Steelers55c18,083$9,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,186.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed Ravens76c16,300$12,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,307.961546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Steelers35c14,720$5,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,535.8556852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Steelers36c14,717$5,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,418.9411544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc86d…c53fbacked Ravens50c14,110$7,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,027.061553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2bd…b539backed Steelers32c13,500$4,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,144.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+192.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Steelers30c13,325$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,325.2910648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Steelers49c13,253$6,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,726.911353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Ravens64c13,115$8,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,451.4831543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Ravens68c13,096$8,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,883.0315746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc153…6c8bbacked Ravens65c13,000$8,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,449.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick60cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Steelers24c12,100$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,143.4547738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Ravens66c11,800$7,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,84224056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Ravens68c11,765$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0008461.9%52 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbfd…8447backed Ravens41c11,455$4,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,696.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe04c…83b0backed Steelers59c11,209$6,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,595.652100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+141%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Steelers32c11,208$3,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,621.747153.5%38 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Steelers38c11,000$4,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,823.936246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ravens57c10,827$6,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,218.3650242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Ravens78c10,511$8,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,173.0728447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Steelers30c10,457$3,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,347.294641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Steelers51c10,014$5,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,949.9727348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Ravens65c10,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,50013560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Steelers32c10,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,799.981060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Steelers32c9,860$3,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,682.211250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Ravens63c9,811$6,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,165.232035%7 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ravens67c9,654$6,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,488.6183147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Ravens79c9,600$7,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,583.991643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Ravens79c9,587$7,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,557.7833328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Ravens53c9,242$4,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,914.9420757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Steelers33c9,091$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,090.916965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd7b6…31e9backed Ravens74c8,889$6,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,607.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Ravens67c8,888$5,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,954.961428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-47.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Steelers33c8,841$2,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,923.771361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+29.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8e3…6fb0backed Steelers35c8,527$2,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,542.231060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Ravens0c8,273$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.242352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Steelers36c8,257$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,246.763271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+39.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Steelers37c8,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,04051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Ravens63c8,000$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Ravens64c7,960$5,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,054.844330.2%13 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Steelers32c7,500$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,10035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…c4d9backed Steelers22c7,495$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,846.45540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Steelers35c7,407$2,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,822.1727644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Ravens68c7,353$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00014252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Ravens40c7,110$2,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,844.1918156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.