NFL · resolved market
Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c2fd450497b1ead9719efd24ffe6b3fd75cf4e1919e645beef4840106a80621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 58c | 16,134$9,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,283.9 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 43c | 12,753$5,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,492.49 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -6.3wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 10,226$4,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,889.89 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 7,326$3,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,730.86 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Under | 50c | 6,466$3,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,216 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +9.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…3d56backed Over | 44c | 6,000$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 58c | 5,957$3,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.09 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 5,273$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,992.64 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 37c | 5,077$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,223.4 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 45c | 4,444$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.44 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…fde3backed Under | 57c | 2,869$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 56c | 2,801$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.64 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 44c | 2,727$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.36 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 56c | 1,720$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.2 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 58c | 1,265$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.73 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Under | 14c | 1,250$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 56c | 1,207$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.58 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Under | 56c | 1,178$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.68 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Under | 4c | 900$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 11c | 900$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Over | 43c | 870$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.9 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 52c | 862.11$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.12 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Over | 35c | 855$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.05 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Under | 65c | 770.22$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Over | 43c | 713.49$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 22c | 681$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 563.14$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.88 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Under | 13c | 500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa51…a910backed Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 57c | 457$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.49 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 43c | 418.6$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.6 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 403.45$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Under | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…9ba9backed Over | 43c | 230.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.29 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 44c | 223.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 203.64$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Under | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 55c | 184$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Under | 51c | 178.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 9c | 150$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…aa68backed Over | 58c | 148.66$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 56c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Under | 18c | 122.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 56c | 116.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 42c | 106$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Over | 42c | 101.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…5bdfbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 57c | 89.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…c5a8backed Under | 56c | 71.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Under | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 56c | 67.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 34c | 65.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…e3a0backed Under | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…e667backed Under | 58c | 51.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked Over | 62c | 49.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…c4adbacked Under | 58c | 48.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 42c | 46.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0b…0874backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Under | 61c | 41.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 60c | 38.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…2d48backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd270…3715backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e7…6031backed Over | 48c | 21.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Under | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 61c | 18.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 43.5this page
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Ravens won
- Ravens vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Ravens vs. Steelers: 1H MoneylineRavens won
- Ravens vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 20.5Under won
- Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 32.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 36.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 37.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 39.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 44.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Ravens (-10.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-4.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-7.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-8.5)Steelers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.