TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$88,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,021 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b5e…83f8backed Over52c25,005$13,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,002.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over53c22,208$11,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,410.8286547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c12,006$5,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,679.211,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80013560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Under45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.9923937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Over50c8,447$4,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,223.56451.6%33 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Under50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00017647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over55c5,082$2,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,286.947348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Under45c4,710$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.514641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under48c4,077$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.2139447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under48c3,022$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.5675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abf…6024backed Under52c2,286$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2004045%18 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under49c2,236$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.5965048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Under45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006647%31 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96010156.4%57 W · 44 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Under9c1,666$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9411122.5%25 W · 86 L+13.9wins+0.13per pick10cpaid+428.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked Under7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Under7c1,300$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc0…fe28backed Under2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under48c999.29$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.941,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over47c898$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.9431543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under48c800$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38413959%82 W · 57 L+12.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Under8c799.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62549.3%5 W · 49 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Under13c700$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894914.3%7 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over50c688$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34431450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over55c633.45$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.212748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Under62c600$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.78345.8%38 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under51c551$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.019447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020443.6%89 W · 115 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under49c420$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.86663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+30.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19214060.7%85 W · 55 L+14.3wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19220555.6%114 W · 91 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19217656.3%99 W · 77 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over56c373$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.1277052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Under65c369.81$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.087052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bfa…bc94backed Over55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.643622.2%8 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Over50c350$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17523447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14416957.4%97 W · 72 L+15.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Over55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7313641.2%56 W · 80 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over54c260$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.623647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010752.3%56 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under48c240$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.211758.1%68 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under48c240$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.211859.3%70 W · 48 L+11.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under47c218.34$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6529439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under45c211.23$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0526649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0919…fcbcbacked Under6c203.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.223030%9 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c56…269fbacked Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.194835.4%17 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Over55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.823158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under48c180$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.412057.5%69 W · 51 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under48c180$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.410958.7%64 W · 45 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under48c180$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.416360.1%98 W · 65 L+16.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8cfa…faa4backed Under43c179.07$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5716451.2%84 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Over49c152.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.653253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc44…3b40backed Over33c151.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.281877.8%14 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.29per pick49cpaid+51.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under48c140$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.29659.4%57 W · 39 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under48c130$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.411856.8%67 W · 51 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.615453.9%83 W · 71 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.66752.2%35 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.610155.4%56 W · 45 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.66147.5%29 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.612356.9%70 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.611056.4%62 W · 48 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.615556.8%88 W · 67 L+13.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under47c116.26$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6150242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Under49c104$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9616860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Under48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810155.4%56 W · 45 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Under48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489651%49 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505952.5%31 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.553253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Over39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615044%22 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaafa…dd84backed Over52c84.1$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.37955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Under45c81$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4524547.8%117 W · 128 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Under48c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410964.2%70 W · 39 L+15.4wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Under51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404951%25 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under49c75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.916349.7%81 W · 82 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8290…253cbacked Over55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.73540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under48c72.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.589757.7%56 W · 41 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Under48c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.610761.7%66 W · 41 L+12.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Under49c68.59$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.615347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over59c65.08$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4432043.8%140 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c27…b3c6backed Over55c63.81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Under48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.810464.4%67 W · 37 L+15.3wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+31.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Under48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.812458.1%72 W · 52 L+10.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Under48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.810361.2%63 W · 40 L+11.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Under48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.810565.7%69 W · 36 L+16.6wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+33.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.811463.2%72 W · 42 L+14.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Under48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.810864.8%70 W · 38 L+15.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+29.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.811552.2%60 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Under48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.810757.9%62 W · 45 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.810861.1%66 W · 42 L+11.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under46c55.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.638349.4%41 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebf0…7c7ebacked Over55c54.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.652138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f55…bae8backed Over55c45.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4516048.1%77 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36fd…adbebacked Over56c44.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8e3…6548backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207852.6%41 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.612756.7%72 W · 55 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27b1…592bbacked Over55c32.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.733141.9%13 W · 18 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under48c30.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8520944.5%93 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd35…ecebbacked Under42c30.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.