Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8995c01cf8e5958e45d6c142dcc15d0d95162449dc5a219dae91e0b1dff182d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 40c | 3,335$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 71c | 1,354$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.94 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Under | 49c | 1,000$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.42 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 820.25$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.8 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 27c | 705.16$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.1 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 685.78$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.31 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 70c | 637.33$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.75 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 71c | 591.55$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.55 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 29c | 489.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 34c | 471.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.98 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Over | 72c | 458.78$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Over | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 9c | 234.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 29c | 223.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1891…fd78backed Over | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 180.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 72c | 180.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 27c | 180.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…b7cabacked Under | 7c | 159.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…6f10backed Over | 61c | 154.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…b2f0backed Under | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 60c | 124.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 29c | 89.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 60c | 86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 71c | 85.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Under | 36c | 69.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 64.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 70c | 57.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 41c | 48.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf7…cb5bbacked Over | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Over | 70c | 33.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…92a2backed Over | 78c | 25.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 59c | 22.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 60c | 22.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…844cbacked Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 72c | 20.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 74c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Over | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.