Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf053552b620d7bca420d7fe649ebbfab8663c0a685e80daf35345418ed62126
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 50c | 3,199$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.08 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 71c | 1,406$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 1,305$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.96 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 48c | 1,060$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 76c | 942.44$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.21 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Under | 73c | 939.98$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…98b3backed Over | 54c | 938.57$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 52c | 782.69$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.99 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…2ca9backed Under | 39c | 574.51$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 30c | 566.67$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 526.63$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.41 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 29c | 526.05$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 33c | 467.16$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ba…3bccbacked Over | 22c | 334.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…3d52backed Under | 77c | 258.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 46c | 257.3$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 72c | 241.75$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.38 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked Over | 21c | 227$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 72c | 215.86$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 214.17$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Under | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 31c | 206.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 65c | 200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.45 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…6f10backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 28c | 173.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.12 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 29c | 172$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…5a18backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 55c | 147.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…b2f0backed Under | 30c | 128.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 40c | 125.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 40c | 124.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…d76fbacked Over | 50c | 120.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Over | 59c | 106.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Over | 34c | 92.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 57c | 87.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…47a8backed Under | 35c | 74.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Over | 16c | 74.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 62c | 61.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…b7cabacked Over | 20c | 59.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…8e36backed Over | 19c | 58.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 38c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…f067backed Under | 58c | 52.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…60f7backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…8b48backed Under | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 28c | 41.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31d9…a1e4backed Under | 71c | 36.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 34.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 32c | 33.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 45c | 33.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -9.7wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…8d74backed Over | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Under | 75c | 24.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…1e75backed Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Over | 51c | 20.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 68c | 19.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…409fbacked Under | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.