Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd86a386d06f872041efa82b12b53517b27f1f1701d66dc0a0112faa5bafa63e

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,617 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	10c	1,172$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.36	988	44.4%439 W · 549 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	10c	821.64$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.1	466	44.8%209 W · 257 L	-23.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under	11c	811$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.21	87	47.1%41 W · 46 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	11c	677.08$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.46	437	48.3%211 W · 226 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under	3c	378.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	10cpaid	+204.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked Under	12c	318.83$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	11c	215.09$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.66	110	57.3%63 W · 47 L	+7.8wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1188…cd0bbacked Under	11c	159.46$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.54	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe29f…b2f0backed Under	11c	105.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+19%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c74…0d16backed Over	80c	54.1$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.82	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb624…e0fabacked Under	48c	37.14$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.83	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7bf…1e0cbacked Under	48c	34.06$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.35	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ff…7898backed Under	48c	33.93$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.29	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc5…f09fbacked Under	48c	29.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf7a…f3d6backed Under	48c	29.35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6267…7b54backed Under	48c	29.29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…eeeabacked Under	48c	28.9$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71a8…fea6backed Under	48c	28.78$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.81	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe843…a607backed Under	48c	28.35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f79…304fbacked Under	48c	28.34$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffde…2838backed Under	48c	28.29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x333c…fe96backed Under	48c	28.27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b06…3ef9backed Under	48c	28.21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.54	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-51%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f28…1ea4backed Under	48c	28.17$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dd7…834dbacked Under	48c	28.15$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa908…d716backed Under	48c	28.14$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x555a…8792backed Under	48c	28.12$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc86a…7082backed Under	48c	28.12$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00cf…f54fbacked Under	48c	28.04$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…2f5dbacked Under	48c	27.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1cb…9113backed Under	48c	27.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e68…31d8backed Under	48c	27.89$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5c8…872bbacked Under	48c	27.88$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.21per pick	54cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef7…d991backed Under	48c	27.88$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d78…6ce9backed Under	48c	27.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ca0…8be9backed Under	48c	27.84$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9e…74bfbacked Under	48c	27.83$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca77…d18cbacked Under	48c	27.82$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3b3…2923backed Under	48c	27.82$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1dc…9389backed Under	48c	27.81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-49%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bc…40eabacked Under	48c	27.81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x398e…1cb4backed Under	48c	27.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-51%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15fb…72ccbacked Under	48c	27.78$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab0…0b80backed Under	48c	27.78$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9c…467dbacked Under	48c	27.76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7611…f2a4backed Under	48c	27.76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcefc…347dbacked Under	48c	27.76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c34…7bc6backed Under	48c	27.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72a8…d917backed Under	48c	27.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb511…4224backed Under	48c	27.73$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533a…1676backed Under	48c	27.72$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ce…5893backed Under	48c	27.72$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5493…af51backed Under	48c	27.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8626…acc2backed Under	48c	27.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae6…b2ccbacked Under	48c	27.69$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6453…9a7dbacked Under	48c	27.61$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc53…57babacked Under	48c	27.59$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.24	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-51%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x232c…2dfebacked Under	48c	27.57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d1…553dbacked Under	48c	27.57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb7…f452backed Under	48c	27.41$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…43fbbacked Under	48c	27.31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.11	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce04…f72ebacked Under	48c	27.1$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-51%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9f…6d55backed Under	48c	27.09$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b3…0592backed Under	48c	27.07$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f0f…820bbacked Under	48c	26.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…ef9ebacked Under	48c	26.16$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b5d…0fbfbacked Under	48c	26.15$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8422…5907backed Under	48c	26.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe302…ec08backed Under	48c	25.54$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5this page
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event