Wallet 0xd473…3feb
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xd473ede4cdf5b0a2672db12834a923fac5783feb
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
TailMyPicks does not watch what 0xd473…3feb is holding. Live positions are read for the strongest fifty wallets in each category, and this one is not among them — so this is we have not looked, not there is nothing there. Its record below is unaffected: that is rebuilt from resolved markets and does not depend on this. You can see what the wallets we do watch are buying on the tail feed.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 2,303
- Categories scored
- 35
- Categories below 50
- 16
Best Category: Dota2, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).
Best Category Dota2 at 57 out of 100; worst Serie A at 39.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 2,303 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagueslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 216 | 58.8%127 W · 89 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| Lollast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT | 115 | 60%69 W · 46 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT | 114 | 55.3%63 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| Bundesligalast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| WNBAlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| La Ligalast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Serie Alast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| Mlslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.