Token Launches · resolved market
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef5c19983d4bc77f607ff440f014ef53119ec45f8fd5c53808847245c4b4569a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $462,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $462,670 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Yes | 59c | 29,638$17,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,614.35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed No | 62c | 12,680$7,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,872.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…12a5backed No | 35c | 12,607$4,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,178.36 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7938…95ccbacked Yes | 71c | 12,597$8,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,882.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 12c | 12,361$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.12 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe52…07dabacked No | 27c | 11,036$2,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,069.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +203.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…d732backed Yes | 67c | 10,316$6,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,941.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 31c | 8,868$2,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,138.08 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 28c | 8,134$2,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,306.84 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…ec01backed Yes | 23c | 8,003$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.47 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes | 63c | 7,300$4,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,591 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 41c | 7,070$2,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,141.04 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 37c | 6,383$2,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,030.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Yes | 34c | 6,308$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,123.96 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08d9…933fbacked Yes | 40c | 5,777$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…a1fcbacked No | 30c | 5,730$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,011 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0653…e566backed Yes | 71c | 5,730$4,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,047.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 27c | 5,500$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,034.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked No | 51c | 5,154$2,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,516.03 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed Yes | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 30c | 4,698$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,294.25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed No | 25c | 4,697$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,535.03 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 65c | 4,630$3,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,008 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…41d5backed No | 28c | 4,300$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,108 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc05…013abacked No | 27c | 4,090$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,985.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 39cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bc…e4eabacked No | 34c | 4,050$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,653.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,967$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…6659backed No | 36c | 3,928$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,509.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed No | 29c | 3,892$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,779.53 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd6…bc2cbacked Yes | 72c | 3,711$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,630$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x413a…b1bcbacked Yes | 62c | 3,540$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 59c | 3,470$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.9 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,462$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f8…0cf6backed Yes | 36c | 3,400$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…788ebacked No | 37c | 3,324$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 66c | 3,253$2,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.54 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 25c | 3,102$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.67 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc40…b43ebacked No | 68c | 3,100$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 60c | 3,025$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.13 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 69c | 3,000$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.31 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b2…7f60backed No | 77c | 2,983$2,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.77 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…8100backed No | 33c | 2,815$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.3 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 23c | 2,688$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.61 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4562…325dbacked No | 38c | 2,687$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…2727backed Yes | 72c | 2,500$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 59c | 2,450$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.99 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 26c | 2,400$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.92 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…9d95backed No | 33c | 2,339$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.46 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 65c | 2,324$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.31 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 38c | 2,292$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 31c | 2,256$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.53 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 3c | 2,168$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e1…c852backed Yes | 67c | 2,163$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.23 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 2,142$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 65c | 2,012$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.05 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed Yes | 72c | 2,000$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed Yes | 57c | 1,980$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.3 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked No | 41c | 1,946$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.19 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…6cc6backed No | 34c | 1,888$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.08 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 17c | 1,787$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.87 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b0…44a4backed No | 79c | 1,750$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d7…1c0bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,706$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 73c | 1,575$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.8 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed Yes | 74c | 1,533$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.86 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked No | 55c | 1,500$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed Yes | 70c | 1,425$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…919dbacked No | 56c | 1,422$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 1,332$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.35 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 36c | 1,330$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.7 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…7552backed No | 32c | 1,320$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.22 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6137…171ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,317$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 76c | 1,289$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.55 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…5732backed Yes | 75c | 1,278$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…469ebacked No | 38c | 1,163$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 50c | 1,156$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.16 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 63c | 1,127$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.8 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 58c | 1,124$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed Yes | 39c | 1,116$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked No | 56c | 1,100$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.98 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 28c | 1,081$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.68 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Yes | 62c | 1,080$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.9 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…6865backed Yes | 66c | 1,076$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.68 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 35c | 1,050$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.3 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f6…3b79backed Yes | 72c | 1,029$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7758…7125backed No | 28c | 999.87$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed No | 24c | 940$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 72c | 936.18$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.85 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xede2…51e1backed Yes | 15c | 927.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c7…e53fbacked No | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 25c | 900.01$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.29 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…bf03backed No | 32c | 900$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 42c | 887.99$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +170.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1f11backed Yes | 2c | 885.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…788dbacked Yes | 72c | 835.51$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 812.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 28c | 802.59$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.86 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?this page
- Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.